Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CGY | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Player | Team | G | A | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Gridin | CGY | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Joel Farabee | CGY | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Martin Pospisil | CGY | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Coronato | CGY | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Simon Nemec | CGY | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| William Nylander | TOR | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Goalie | Team | SA | SV | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 32 | 29 | .906 |
| Devin Cooley | CGY | 28 | 26 | .929 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, CGY 47% · Updated Oct 26
Marshall Rifai · Miles Wood
Nick BlankenburgOutJonathan Huberdeau · Samuel Honzek
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 7:30 PM CT | Polymarket USpre-game · 7:29 PM CT | ProphetXpre-game · 7:27 PM CT | Novigpre-game · 7:28 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | −11453% | −13757.7% | −13657.7% | −12956.3% | −12555.5% |
| CGYCalgary Flames | +11447% | +11446.7% | +11446.7% | +11746.1% | +12245.0% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | −0.4our margin | −1.5 +17336.6% | −1.5 +17336.6% | −1.5 +16837.3% | −1.5 +17836.0% |
| CGYCalgary Flames | +0.4our margin | +1.5 −20867.6% | +1.5 −20867.6% | +1.5 −19065.5% | +1.5 −18264.5% |
| Totalwe expect 6.5 | |||||
| Over | 6.5our total | o6.5 −12154.7% | o6.5 −12154.7% | o6.5 −11854.2% | o6.5 −11353.0% |
| Under | 6.5our total | u6.5 +10149.7% | u6.5 +10149.7% | u6.5 +10548.9% | u6.5 +10848.0% |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.
Total range
6.5 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.
Starting Goalies
from the box scoreStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Injury list before the game · Oct 26, 2026, 6:10 PM CTFor context, not in our forecast.