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Mammoth at Canadiens

NHL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MTL 3.2 – 3.1 UTAH
Expected total
6.3
MammothThe matchupCanadiens
+114Our fair odds−114
3.1Expected goals3.2
+0.09Power rating+0.19
3.6Goals / game3.3
3.3Allowed / game2.9
30.4Shots / game27.5
54.6Faceoff %51.0
27.0Hits / game20.7
9−5Season record8−5
6−4Last 107−3
John Marino D · Maveric Lamoureux D
Michael Carcone LWOut (3 each)Nick Suzuki C · Ivan Demidov RW
Sam Montembeault G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · MTL chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi53.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:13 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+11447%−11653.7%———
MTLMontreal Canadiens−11453%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.1our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 19%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 23%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 10%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byMTL wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more30%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more20%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .864 save %, 3.99 GAAexpected
MTLJacob Fowler G · last 5 starts: .944 save %, 1.57 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·MTL
Oct 29 at PIT
last game
Oct 29 at DAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Utah Mammoth
UTAHJohn Marino D · upper bodyOut
UTAHMaveric Lamoureux D · shoulder, back about Feb 12, 2027IR
UTAHMichael Carcone LW · upper bodyIR
Montreal Canadiens
MTLNick Suzuki COut
MTLMike Matheson D · lower bodyDay-to-day
MTLIvan Demidov RW · lower bodyIR
MTLSam Montembeault G · lower bodyIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
UTAH·MTL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
3.6
goals / game
3.3
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.9
9−5
season record
8−5
4−2
home record
3−3
5−3
away record
5−2
W1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
30.4
shots / game
27.5
54.6
faceoff %
51.0
27.0
hits / game
20.7
14.6
blocked shots / game
12.6
3.6
takeaways / game
4.2
16.1
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

UTAH · MTL · 31 days
Utah MammothMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · MTL 3−1
Nov 26, 2025at UTAHMTL 4 − 3
Nov 8, 2025at MTLMTL 6 − 2
Jan 14, 2025at UTAHMTL 5 − 3
Nov 26, 2024at MTLUTAH 3 − 2 OT

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 29at PIT4 − 3W
Oct 27vs MIN1 − 3L
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 22at SEA3 − 5L
Oct 19vs PIT5 − 4W
Oct 17vs EDM2 − 6L
Oct 15at EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13vs TOR5 − 4W
Oct 10at BUF4 − 1W
Oct 8at BOS1 − 6L

MTL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Oct 29at DAL5 − 2W
Oct 27at STL2 − 0W
Oct 25at WPG2 − 1W
Oct 23at CHI4 − 1W
Oct 20vs SJ3 − 4L
Oct 17vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 14at WSH4 − 5L
Oct 13vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 10vs DET1 − 0W
Oct 8vs NSH2 − 5L