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Panthers at Capitals

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 11:30 AM CT · Capital One Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.3 – 3.1 FLA
Expected total
6.4
PanthersThe matchupCapitals
+119Our fair odds−119
3.1Expected goals3.3
+0.05Power rating+0.19
3.1Goals / game3.6
2.8Allowed / game3.1
28.9Shots / game27.8
48.1Faceoff %48.4
32.0Hits / game22.5
8−6Season record8−4
6−4Last 107−3
Aleksander Barkov C · Brad Marchand LW
Jacob Markstrom G · Jonah Gadjovich LWOutRasmus Sandin D · Vincent Desharnais D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
FLA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi52.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi3:19 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
FLAFlorida Panthers+11946%−11252.7%———
WSHWashington Capitals−11954%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
FLAFlorida Panthers+0.3our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 2%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 5%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 10%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 9%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 20%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 21%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 13%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%
← FLA wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more33%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more23%
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,068 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,068 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
FLAnot announced yet
WSHnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
FLA·WSH
Oct 30 vs WPG
last game
Oct 29 at NSH
7 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Florida Panthers
FLAAleksander Barkov C · left lower body, back about Nov 27IR
FLABrad Marchand LW · left leg, back about Nov 21IR
FLAJacob Markstrom G · upper bodyIR
FLAJonah Gadjovich LW · upper body surgery, back about Nov 28IR
Washington Capitals
WSHRasmus Sandin D · right knee surgery, back about Dec 26IR
WSHVincent Desharnais D · abdomen surgery, back about Dec 5IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
FLA·WSH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
3.1
goals / game
3.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.1
8−6
season record
8−4
3−1
home record
6−2
5−5
away record
2−2
W3
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
28.9
shots / game
27.8
48.1
faceoff %
48.4
32.0
hits / game
22.5
10.9
blocked shots / game
17.1
3.6
takeaways / game
3.1
16.4
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

FLA · WSH · 32 days
Florida PanthersWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Jan 17at WSHFLA 5 − 2
Dec 29, 2025at FLAFLA 5 − 3
Nov 13, 2025at FLAFLA 6 − 3
Mar 22, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 3
Feb 4, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 3
Nov 25, 2024at FLAWSH 4 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at FLAFLA 3 − 2 OT
Feb 8, 2024at FLAFLA 4 − 2
Nov 8, 2023at WSHFLA 4 − 3 OT
Apr 8, 2023at WSHFLA 4 − 2

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 30vs WPG5 − 2W
Oct 27at WPG5 − 1W
Oct 25at CHI3 − 2W
Oct 22at PIT0 − 4L
Oct 21at OTT1 − 5L
Oct 17vs SEA8 − 3W
Oct 15vs VAN3 − 2W
Oct 13at CBJ7 − 3W
Oct 12at BUF3 − 5L
Oct 10vs MIN1 − 4L

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 29at NSH4 − 3W
Oct 28vs PHI5 − 2W
Oct 24vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 20vs LA2 − 5L
Oct 17vs NJ4 − 2W
Oct 14vs MTL5 − 4W
Oct 13at CAR2 − 4L
Oct 11vs SEA3 − 5L
Oct 9vs NYR3 − 1W
Oct 7vs PIT5 − 3W