bayesRatings

Twins at Angels

MLB · Thursday, Sep 17 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final MIN 4 – LAA 5
← MLB / Sep 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIN00000001214100
LAA3000000002580
Team box
MIN·LAA
10
hits
8
1
home runs
0
2
walks
3
15
strikeouts
14
149
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Walker JenkinsMIN3-4212
Brooks LeeMIN2-4002
Oswald PerazaLAA2-3001
Wade MecklerLAA2-5101
Mike TroutLAA1-4101
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj BradleyMIN7.05319
Yoendrys Gomez (L)MIN0.11110
Walbert UrenaLAA7.04009
Blake Weiman (W)LAA1.02011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
MIN +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 3 · MIN 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 51%, LAA 49% · Updated Sep 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.5 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
8.8
TwinsThe matchupAngels
−106Our fair odds+106
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.15Power rating−0.29
4.6Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.16Home runs / game0.96
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
71−81Season record58−94
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · LAA chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins−10651%−10751.8%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10649%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins−0.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byLAA wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more27%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 21 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·LAA
Sep 16 vs NYY
last game
Sep 16 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
MIN·LAA
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
4.6
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
71−81
season record
58−94
40−38
home record
32−45
31−43
away record
26−49
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.16
home runs / game
0.96
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.46
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

MIN · LAA · 173 days
Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Jul 12at MINMIN 4 − 2
Jul 11at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jul 10at MINLAA 4 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at LAALAA 12 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LAAMIN 12 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 1
Apr 25, 2025at MINMIN 11 − 4
Sep 11, 2024at MINMIN 6 − 4

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 16vs NYY5 − 4W
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L
Sep 9at DET2 − 7L
Sep 8at DET3 − 2W
Sep 7at DET4 − 5L
Sep 6at CHW1 − 10L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 16vs SEA2 − 7L
Sep 15vs SEA2 − 1W
Sep 14vs SEA6 − 4W
Sep 13at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 12at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 11at WSH3 − 4L
Sep 9at BOS6 − 4W
Sep 8at BOS6 − 1W
Sep 7at BOS2 − 5L
Sep 6at PIT0 − 1L