bayesRatings

Nationals at Tigers

MLB · Monday, Sep 21 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final WSH 2 – DET 9
← MLB / Sep 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000020251
DET200250009120
Team box
WSH·DET
5
hits
12
1
home runs
3
2
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben MalgeriDET2-4113
Javier BaezDET1-2112
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4112
Yohandy MoralesWSH1-1112
Hao-Yu LeeDET3-5101
Eduardo ValenciaDET3-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
DJ Herz (L)WSH4.05424
River RyanDET3.02013
Keider Montero (W)DET4.01015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +9
WSH +9
123456789
largest lead: DET 9 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, DET 55% · Updated Sep 21

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 WSH
Expected total
8.9
NationalsThe matchupTigers
+123Our fair odds−123
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.10Power rating+0.03
5.1Runs / game4.5
5.0Allowed / game4.0
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.30Home runs / game1.11
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
73−83Season record73−83
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12345%+11446.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12355%−13757.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHDJ Herz SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 13 Kstarted
DETRiver Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·DET
Sep 20 at STL
last game
Sep 20 at CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
WSH·DET
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.1
runs / game
4.5
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
73−83
season record
73−83
37−41
home record
39−36
36−42
away record
34−47
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.30
home runs / game
1.11
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.66
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

WSH · DET · 177 days
Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 3−6
Jul 3, 2025at WSHWSH 11 − 7
Jul 2, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at WSHDET 11 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at DETDET 7 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at DETWSH 7 − 5
Jun 11, 2024at DETWSH 5 − 4
May 21, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 4
May 20, 2023at WSHWSH 5 − 2
May 19, 2023at WSHDET 8 − 6

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 20at STL3 − 5L
Sep 19at STL8 − 5W
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 20at CHW1 − 8L
Sep 19at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 18at CHW11 − 8W
Sep 17at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 16at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 15at TOR10 − 1W
Sep 14at TOR6 − 5W
Sep 13vs COL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs COL11 − 7W
Sep 11vs COL6 − 2W