bayesRatings

Nationals at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final WSH 3 – DET 1
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH010000200370
DET000001000170
Team box
WSH·DET
7
hits
7
2
home runs
0
0
walks
6
8
strikeouts
11
168
pitches thrown
108
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH2-4223
Max ClarkDET2-4000
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5000
Dylan CrewsWSH2-4100
Gleyber TorresDET1-4000
Ben MalgeriDET1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Riley CornelioWSH2.21034
Jackson Kent (W)WSH4.06123
Erik Tolman (S)WSH1.00013
Drew Anderson (L)DET6.05305

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · WSH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, DET 56% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 WSH
Expected total
9.0
NationalsThe matchupTigers
+127Our fair odds−127
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.11Power rating+0.04
5.1Runs / game4.5
5.1Allowed / game4.0
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.30Home runs / game1.12
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
73−84Season record74−83
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12744%+12943.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12756%−15460.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHRiley Cornelio RP · last 2 starts: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
DETDrew Anderson RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·DET
Sep 21 at DET
last game
Sep 21 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
WSH·DET
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.1
runs / game
4.5
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
73−84
season record
74−83
37−41
home record
40−36
36−43
away record
34−47
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.30
home runs / game
1.12
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.66
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

WSH · DET · 178 days
Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Sep 21at DETDET 9 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at WSHWSH 11 − 7
Jul 2, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at WSHDET 11 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at DETDET 7 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at DETWSH 7 − 5
Jun 11, 2024at DETWSH 5 − 4
May 21, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 4
May 20, 2023at WSHWSH 5 − 2
May 19, 2023at WSHDET 8 − 6

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 21at DET2 − 9L
Sep 20at STL3 − 5L
Sep 19at STL8 − 5W
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 21vs WSH9 − 2W
Sep 20at CHW1 − 8L
Sep 19at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 18at CHW11 − 8W
Sep 17at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 16at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 15at TOR10 − 1W
Sep 14at TOR6 − 5W
Sep 13vs COL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs COL11 − 7W