bayesRatings

Nationals at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final WSH 4 – DET 2
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000003100460
DET000001001280
Team box
WSH·DET
6
hits
8
1
home runs
1
4
walks
6
8
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben MalgeriDET2-5112
Yohandy MoralesWSH1-4112
Kevin McGonigleDET3-5000
CJ AbramsWSH1-2001
Brady HouseWSH2-4100
Jace JungDET1-1100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Richard LoveladyWSH1.11010
Will Dion (W)WSH2.03114
Yovanny Cruz (S)WSH1.13102
Framber Valdez (L)DET5.14236

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · WSH 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, DET 55% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 WSH
Expected total
8.9
NationalsThe matchupTigers
+124Our fair odds−124
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.10Power rating+0.03
5.1Runs / game4.5
5.0Allowed / game4.0
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.30Home runs / game1.11
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
74−84Season record74−84
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12445%+14041.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12455%−16862.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHRichard Lovelady RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·DET
Sep 22 at DET
last game
Sep 22 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
WSH·DET
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.1
runs / game
4.5
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
74−84
season record
74−84
37−41
home record
40−37
37−43
away record
34−47
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.30
home runs / game
1.11
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.66
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

WSH · DET · 179 days
Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Sep 22at DETWSH 3 − 1
Sep 21at DETDET 9 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at WSHWSH 11 − 7
Jul 2, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at WSHDET 11 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at DETDET 7 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at DETWSH 7 − 5
Jun 11, 2024at DETWSH 5 − 4
May 21, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 4
May 20, 2023at WSHWSH 5 − 2

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 22at DET3 − 1W
Sep 21at DET2 − 9L
Sep 20at STL3 − 5L
Sep 19at STL8 − 5W
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 22vs WSH1 − 3L
Sep 21vs WSH9 − 2W
Sep 20at CHW1 − 8L
Sep 19at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 18at CHW11 − 8W
Sep 17at CHW1 − 3L
Sep 16at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 15at TOR10 − 1W
Sep 14at TOR6 − 5W
Sep 13vs COL8 − 1W