bayesRatings

Phillies at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Oct 1 · 7:00 PM CT · Truist Park · Final PHI 2 – ATL 6
← MLB / Oct 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000001010260
ATL30020010660
Team box
PHI·ATL
6
hits
6
0
home runs
3
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
6
143
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL1-3113
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3112
Matt OlsonATL1-3211
Dominic SmithATL2-3000
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-3100
Alec BohmPHI1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (L)PHI1.22321
Ray KerrATL3.11012
Grant Holmes (W)ATL2.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 5 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 47%, ATL 53% · Updated Oct 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.2 – 3.9 PHI
Expected total
8.2
PhilliesThe matchupBraves
+111Our fair odds−111
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.14Power rating+0.17
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.3Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.12Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
88−74 · 1−1 postSeason record94−68 · 1−1 post
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+11147%−10751.8%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11153%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more38%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more27%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATLRay Kerr RP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Sep 30 at ATL
last game
Sep 30 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
PHI·ATL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.9
88−74 · 1−1 post
season record
94−68 · 1−1 post
43−38
home record
52−29
45−36
away record
42−39
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.12
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.49
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 186 days
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Sep 30at ATLPHI 4 − 3post
Sep 29at ATLATL 5 − 3post
Sep 13at ATLPHI 9 − 4
Sep 12at ATLATL 12 − 2
Sep 11at ATLATL 6 − 5
Sep 7at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 6at PHIATL 5 − 4
Sep 5at PHIPHI 4 − 2
Sep 4at PHIATL 5 − 2
Apr 26at ATLATL 6 − 2

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 30at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 29at ATL3 − 5L
Sep 27vs TB7 − 3W
Sep 26vs TB1 − 12L
Sep 25vs TB0 − 2L
Sep 24vs MIL1 − 5L
Sep 23vs MIL1 − 4L
Sep 22vs MIL6 − 4W
Sep 20at NYM7 − 2W
Sep 19at NYM3 − 10L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 30vs PHI3 − 4L
Sep 29vs PHI5 − 3W
Sep 27at MIA3 − 5L
Sep 26at MIA8 − 3W
Sep 25at MIA0 − 3L
Sep 24vs CIN6 − 7L
Sep 23vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 22vs CIN0 − 4L
Sep 20at HOU4 − 2W
Sep 19at HOU6 − 3W