bayesRatings

Braves at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ATL 8 – MIA 3
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL1302000028100
MIA000200100381
Team box
ATL·MIA
10
hits
8
2
home runs
1
3
walks
1
10
strikeouts
6
132
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drake BaldwinATL3-5112
Michael Harris IIATL4-5301
Dominic SmithATL1-3112
Javier SanojaMIA2-4111
Matt OlsonATL1-4002
Griffin ConineMIA2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brent SuterATL3.01003
Victor Mederos (W)ATL2.00012
Jack Ralston (L)MIA1.13312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +6
ATL +6
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · ATL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 52%, MIA 48% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 4.1 MIA
Expected total
8.6
BravesThe matchupMarlins
−109Our fair odds+109
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.16Power rating−0.01
4.6Runs / game4.4
3.9Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.26Home runs / game1.03
2.9Walks drawn / game3.4
93−67Season record79−81
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10952%−12154.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10948%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBrent Suter RP · last 3 starts: 5.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 4 Kstarted
MIAJack Ralston RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIA
Sep 25 at MIA
last game
Sep 25 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
ATL·MIA
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.6
runs / game
4.4
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
93−67
season record
79−81
52−29
home record
46−33
41−38
away record
33−48
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.26
home runs / game
1.03
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.41
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

ATL · MIA · 182 days
Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 2−8
Sep 25at MIAMIA 3 − 0
Aug 6at ATLATL 11 − 3
Aug 5at ATLATL 4 − 1
Aug 4at ATLATL 4 − 2
May 21at MIAATL 9 − 3
May 20at MIAATL 9 − 1
May 19at MIAATL 8 − 4
May 18at MIAMIA 12 − 0
Apr 15at ATLATL 6 − 3
Apr 14at ATLATL 6 − 5

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 25at MIA0 − 3L
Sep 24vs CIN6 − 7L
Sep 23vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 22vs CIN0 − 4L
Sep 20at HOU4 − 2W
Sep 19at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 18at HOU6 − 2W
Sep 16at CHC4 − 8L
Sep 15at CHC6 − 3W
Sep 14at CHC3 − 7L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 25vs ATL3 − 0W
Sep 24at CHC1 − 2L
Sep 23at CHC3 − 2W
Sep 22at CHC8 − 2W
Sep 20at SD3 − 7L
Sep 19at SD6 − 7L
Sep 18at SD2 − 8L
Sep 16at ARI4 − 3W
Sep 15at ARI4 − 2W
Sep 14at ARI7 − 8L