bayesRatings

Reds at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CIN 4 – ATL 0
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0010011104100
ATL000000000070
Team box
CIN·ATL
10
hits
7
3
home runs
0
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
121
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN2-3112
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4111
Dane MyersCIN1-4111
Michael Harris IIATL2-4000
Drake BaldwinATL2-3000
JJ BledayCIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Williamson (W)CIN6.03002
JR Ritchie (L)ATL5.04138

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
CIN +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · CIN 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 39%, ATL 61% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
ATL by 1.4
Expected score
ATL 5.2 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
8.9
RedsThe matchupBraves
+153Our fair odds−153
3.8Expected runs5.2
−0.15Power rating+0.19
4.1Runs / game4.6
5.2Allowed / game3.9
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.31Home runs / game1.27
3.5Walks drawn / game2.9
72−84Season record92−64
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15339%+19833.5%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−15361%−23970.5%———
SpreadATL by 1.4
CINCincinnati Reds+1.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.4 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more48%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATLJR Ritchie SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·ATL
Sep 20 vs CHC
last game
Sep 20 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
CIN·ATL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.1
runs / game
4.6
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
72−84
season record
92−64
38−43
home record
51−27
34−41
away record
41−37
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.31
home runs / game
1.27
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.56
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

CIN · ATL · 178 days
Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
May 31at CINCIN 6 − 4
May 30at CINATL 5 − 2
May 29at CINATL 8 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CINATL 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jul 31, 2025at CINATL 12 − 11
May 8, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at ATLCIN 4 − 3
May 6, 2025at ATLATL 2 − 1
May 5, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 0

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 20vs CHC1 − 9L
Sep 19vs CHC2 − 5L
Sep 18vs CHC6 − 4W
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 20at HOU4 − 2W
Sep 19at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 18at HOU6 − 2W
Sep 16at CHC4 − 8L
Sep 15at CHC6 − 3W
Sep 14at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 13vs PHI4 − 9L
Sep 12vs PHI12 − 2W
Sep 11vs PHI6 − 5W
Sep 10vs TB3 − 1W