bayesRatings

Reds at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CIN 2 – ATL 3
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CIN1000001000251
ATL0000011001370
Team box
CIN·ATL
5
hits
7
1
home runs
2
1
walks
2
15
strikeouts
8
141
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL2-4111
Austin RileyATL2-4111
Juan BritoCIN2-4111
Mauricio DubonATL2-4001
Matt McLainCIN2-4100
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN7.06216
Luis Mey (L)CIN0.11000
Chris SaleATL5.241010
Brent Suter (W)ATL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
CIN +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATL 1 · CIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 40%, ATL 60% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
ATL by 1.3
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 3.7 CIN
Expected total
8.7
RedsThe matchupBraves
+149Our fair odds−149
3.7Expected runs5.0
−0.14Power rating+0.17
4.1Runs / game4.6
5.1Allowed / game3.9
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.32Home runs / game1.26
3.5Walks drawn / game2.9
73−84Season record92−65
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+14940%+22930.4%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−14960%−27673.4%———
SpreadATL by 1.3
CINCincinnati Reds+1.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.3 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 7.59 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 2.05 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·ATL
Sep 22 at ATL
last game
Sep 22 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
CIN·ATL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.1
runs / game
4.6
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
73−84
season record
92−65
38−43
home record
51−28
35−41
away record
41−37
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.32
home runs / game
1.26
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.55
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

CIN · ATL · 179 days
Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Sep 22at ATLCIN 4 − 0
May 31at CINCIN 6 − 4
May 30at CINATL 5 − 2
May 29at CINATL 8 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CINATL 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jul 31, 2025at CINATL 12 − 11
May 8, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at ATLCIN 4 − 3
May 6, 2025at ATLATL 2 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 22at ATL4 − 0W
Sep 20vs CHC1 − 9L
Sep 19vs CHC2 − 5L
Sep 18vs CHC6 − 4W
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 22vs CIN0 − 4L
Sep 20at HOU4 − 2W
Sep 19at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 18at HOU6 − 2W
Sep 16at CHC4 − 8L
Sep 15at CHC6 − 3W
Sep 14at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 13vs PHI4 − 9L
Sep 12vs PHI12 − 2W
Sep 11vs PHI6 − 5W