bayesRatings

Reds at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Sep 24 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CIN 7 – ATL 6
← MLB / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN113002000770
ATL4010100006120
Team box
CIN·ATL
7
hits
12
3
home runs
1
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
4
148
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hector RodriguezCIN2-4212
Austin RileyATL1-2112
Michael Harris IIATL3-5101
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4111
Carlos JorgeCIN1-4111
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady SingerCIN3.07521
Connor Phillips (W)CIN1.11020
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.01001
Tyler MahleATL5.06524
AJ Smith-Shawver (L)ATL2.01200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 3 · CIN 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 40%, ATL 60% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
ATL by 1.3
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 3.6 CIN
Expected total
8.6
RedsThe matchupBraves
+150Our fair odds−150
3.6Expected runs5.0
−0.14Power rating+0.18
4.1Runs / game4.6
5.1Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.32Home runs / game1.27
3.5Walks drawn / game2.9
73−85Season record93−65
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15040%+19833.5%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−15060%−23970.5%———
SpreadATL by 1.3
CINCincinnati Reds+1.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.3 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 15.32 ERA, 8 Kstarted
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·ATL
Sep 23 at ATL
last game
Sep 23 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
CIN·ATL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.1
runs / game
4.6
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
73−85
season record
93−65
38−43
home record
52−28
35−42
away record
41−37
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.32
home runs / game
1.27
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.56
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

CIN · ATL · 180 days
Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Sep 23at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22at ATLCIN 4 − 0
May 31at CINCIN 6 − 4
May 30at CINATL 5 − 2
May 29at CINATL 8 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CINATL 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jul 31, 2025at CINATL 12 − 11
May 8, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at ATLCIN 4 − 3

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 23at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22at ATL4 − 0W
Sep 20vs CHC1 − 9L
Sep 19vs CHC2 − 5L
Sep 18vs CHC6 − 4W
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 23vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 22vs CIN0 − 4L
Sep 20at HOU4 − 2W
Sep 19at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 18at HOU6 − 2W
Sep 16at CHC4 − 8L
Sep 15at CHC6 − 3W
Sep 14at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 13vs PHI4 − 9L
Sep 12vs PHI12 − 2W