bayesRatings

Phillies at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 30 · 1:00 PM CT · Truist Park · Final PHI 4 – ATL 3
← MLB / Sep 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PHI10000002014120
ATL1000002000390
Team box
PHI·ATL
12
hits
9
3
home runs
0
1
walks
6
9
strikeouts
9
157
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI2-5112
Alec BohmPHI2-4111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-5111
Matt OlsonATL1-4002
Drake BaldwinATL2-5001
Mauricio DubonATL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristopher SanchezPHI6.26356
Andrew Painter (W)PHI3.03013
Tyler MahleATL7.06116
Didier Fuentes (L)ATL1.13102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
PHI +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATL 2 · PHI 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 47%, ATL 53% · Updated Sep 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.2 – 3.9 PHI
Expected total
8.2
PhilliesThe matchupBraves
+113Our fair odds−113
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.13Power rating+0.17
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.3Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.12Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
88−74 · 0−1 postSeason record94−68 · 1−0 post
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+11347%−11653.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more38%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more27%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Sep 29 at ATL
last game
Sep 29 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
PHI·ATL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.9
88−74 · 0−1 post
season record
94−68 · 1−0 post
43−38
home record
52−29
45−36
away record
42−39
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.12
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.49
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 185 days
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Sep 29at ATLATL 5 − 3post
Sep 13at ATLPHI 9 − 4
Sep 12at ATLATL 12 − 2
Sep 11at ATLATL 6 − 5
Sep 7at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 6at PHIATL 5 − 4
Sep 5at PHIPHI 4 − 2
Sep 4at PHIATL 5 − 2
Apr 26at ATLATL 6 − 2
Apr 25at ATLPHI 8 − 5

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 29at ATL3 − 5L
Sep 27vs TB7 − 3W
Sep 26vs TB1 − 12L
Sep 25vs TB0 − 2L
Sep 24vs MIL1 − 5L
Sep 23vs MIL1 − 4L
Sep 22vs MIL6 − 4W
Sep 20at NYM7 − 2W
Sep 19at NYM3 − 10L
Sep 18at NYM3 − 6L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 29vs PHI5 − 3W
Sep 27at MIA3 − 5L
Sep 26at MIA8 − 3W
Sep 25at MIA0 − 3L
Sep 24vs CIN6 − 7L
Sep 23vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 22vs CIN0 − 4L
Sep 20at HOU4 − 2W
Sep 19at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 18at HOU6 − 2W