bayesRatings

Guardians at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Oct 7 · 3:00 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CLE 9 – CHW 3
← MLB / Oct 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE0040100229110
CHW100101000360
Team box
CLE·CHW
11
hits
6
0
home runs
0
10
walks
3
6
strikeouts
19
152
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellCLE2-4003
Jose RamirezCLE2-4202
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4001
Kyle TeelCHW1-4001
Tristan PetersCHW1-4001
Sam AntonacciCHW1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Daniel EspinoCLE0.22112
Foster Griffin (W)CLE2.22107
Sean NewcombCHW2.01001
Bryan Hudson (L)CHW0.12310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · CLE 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, CHW 52% · Updated Oct 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.2 CLE
Expected total
8.7
GuardiansThe matchupWhite Sox
+109Our fair odds−109
4.2Expected runs4.5
+0.03Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.30
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
85−77 · 0−2 postSeason record84−78 · 4−0 post
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHW chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10948%+10548.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10952%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEDaniel Espino RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 5 Kstarted
CHWSean Newcomb RP · last 3 starts: 4.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHW
Oct 5 vs CHW
last game
Oct 5 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CLE·CHW
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
85−77 · 0−2 post
season record
84−78 · 4−0 post
41−40
home record
48−33
44−37
away record
36−45
L3
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.30
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.52
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CLE · CHW · 191 days
Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 7−3
Oct 5at CLECHW 4 − 3post
Oct 3at CLECHW 3 − 0post
Sep 16at CLECLE 6 − 3
Sep 15at CLECLE 7 − 6
Sep 14at CLECHW 7 − 3
Aug 9at CHWCHW 5 − 3
Aug 8at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Aug 7at CHWCLE 8 − 2
Jul 5at CLECHW 7 − 6
Jul 4at CLECHW 3 − 1

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Oct 5vs CHW3 − 4L
Oct 3vs CHW0 − 3L
Sep 27at KC2 − 3L
Sep 26at KC11 − 5W
Sep 25at KC12 − 9W
Sep 24at BOS1 − 0W
Sep 23at BOS0 − 1L
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 20vs ATH1 − 0W
Sep 19vs ATH12 − 6W

CHW · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Oct 5at CLE4 − 3W
Oct 3at CLE3 − 0W
Sep 30at HOU7 − 3W
Sep 29at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 27vs COL4 − 2W
Sep 26vs COL6 − 9L
Sep 25vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 24at KC9 − 1W
Sep 23at KC4 − 5L
Sep 22at KC14 − 11W