bayesRatings

White Sox at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 29 · 4:00 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final CHW 6 – HOU 3
← MLB / Sep 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW1201101006111
HOU000020010361
Team box
CHW·HOU
11
hits
6
1
home runs
1
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nelson VelazquezHOU1-3112
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3111
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4101
Sam AntonacciCHW1-3102
Randal GrichukCHW2-3000
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hagen SmithCHW3.02001
Jordan Hicks (W)CHW1.10001
AJ Blubaugh (L)HOU0.20030

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · CHW 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Sep 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.6 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
9.0
White SoxThe matchupAstros
+104Our fair odds−104
4.6Expected runs4.4
+0.00Power rating−0.03
4.8Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.7
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.30Home runs / game1.40
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
84−78Season record81−81
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10449%+10149.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10451%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byHOU wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWHagen Smith SP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted
HOUAJ Blubaugh RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·HOU
Sep 27 vs COL
last game
Sep 27 at ATH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CHW·HOU
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.8
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
84−78
season record
81−81
48−33
home record
39−42
36−45
away record
42−39
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.30
home runs / game
1.40
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.51
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CHW · HOU · 184 days
Chicago White SoxHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
Sep 3at HOUHOU 6 − 2
Sep 2at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 1at HOUCHW 5 − 1
Aug 31at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Jul 26at CHWCHW 12 − 3
Jul 25at CHWHOU 4 − 1
Jul 24at CHWHOU 9 − 5
Jun 12, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at HOUCHW 4 − 2

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 27vs COL4 − 2W
Sep 26vs COL6 − 9L
Sep 25vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 24at KC9 − 1W
Sep 23at KC4 − 5L
Sep 22at KC14 − 11W
Sep 20vs DET8 − 1W
Sep 19vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 18vs DET8 − 11L
Sep 17vs DET3 − 1W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 27at ATH9 − 0W
Sep 26at ATH13 − 2W
Sep 25at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 24at ATH7 − 5W
Sep 23at SEA5 − 6L
Sep 22at SEA7 − 0W
Sep 20vs ATL2 − 4L
Sep 19vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 18vs ATL2 − 6L
Sep 17vs KC6 − 2W