bayesRatings

Astros at Athletics

MLB · Thursday, Sep 24 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final HOU 7 – ATH 5
← MLB / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU0300011117100
ATH0040000105110
Team box
HOU·ATH
10
hits
11
5
home runs
3
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
14
147
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lucas SpenceHOU3-4335
Zack GelofATH2-3222
Jeff McNeilATH2-4113
Christian WalkerHOU2-4211
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4111
Lawrence ButlerATH3-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter LambertHOU2.26426
Miguel Ullola (W)HOU3.01003
Bryan Abreu (S)HOU1.11010
Mason BarnettATH6.04428
Scott Blewett (L)ATH1.03100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · HOU 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 56%, ATH 44% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
HOU by 1.0
Expected score
HOU 5.7 – 4.7 ATH
Expected total
10.4
AstrosThe matchupAthletics
−129Our fair odds+129
5.7Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating−0.40
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.8Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.3
1.35Home runs / game1.21
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
78−80Season record63−95
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · ATH chance
Our model fair56.4%43.6%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−12956%−18364.6%———
ATHAthletics+12944%+15239.6%———
SpreadHOU by 1.0
HOUHouston Astros−1our margin————
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.0 expected
Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byATH wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more45%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more36%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ATHMason Barnett RP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 12.60 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·ATH
Sep 23 at SEA
last game
Sep 23 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
HOU·ATH
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.40
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
78−80
season record
63−95
39−42
home record
31−46
39−38
away record
32−49
L1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.3
1.35
home runs / game
1.21
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.44
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

HOU · ATH · 180 days
Houston AstrosAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Aug 23at HOUATH 7 − 6
Aug 22at HOUATH 4 − 3
Aug 21at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Jun 7at HOUATH 5 − 0
Jun 6at HOUHOU 13 − 2
Jun 5at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 23at SEA5 − 6L
Sep 22at SEA7 − 0W
Sep 20vs ATL2 − 4L
Sep 19vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 18vs ATL2 − 6L
Sep 17vs KC6 − 2W
Sep 16vs KC2 − 5L
Sep 15vs KC4 − 2W
Sep 13at TB4 − 14L
Sep 12at TB2 − 3L

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Sep 23vs LAA7 − 3W
Sep 22vs LAA9 − 7W
Sep 20at CLE0 − 1L
Sep 19at CLE6 − 12L
Sep 18at CLE3 − 5L
Sep 17at TB1 − 10L
Sep 16at TB3 − 4L
Sep 15at TB1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SEA8 − 7W
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L