bayesRatings

Astros at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final HOU 7 – SEA 0
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU1030010207120
SEA000000000041
Team box
HOU·SEA
12
hits
4
3
home runs
0
5
walks
5
8
strikeouts
9
153
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4113
Christian WalkerHOU1-5113
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4111
Jose AltuveHOU2-5100
Yainer DiazHOU2-5100
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristian JavierHOU2.01022
Miguel Ullola (W)HOU2.01002
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA4.010423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +7
HOU +7
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · HOU 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, SEA 52% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.3 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.6
AstrosThe matchupMariners
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.3
−0.06Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.8Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game7.7
1.34Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
77−79Season record73−83
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SEA chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10748%+10947.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10752%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.1our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← HOU wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more36%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more26%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 6.11 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SEA
Sep 20 vs ATL
last game
Sep 20 at COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
HOU·SEA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
77−79
season record
73−83
39−42
home record
40−35
38−37
away record
33−48
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.7
1.34
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.45
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

HOU · SEA · 178 days
Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 8−2
Aug 16at HOUSEA 3 − 2
Aug 15at HOUSEA 10 − 5
Aug 14at HOUHOU 10 − 7
May 14at HOUSEA 8 − 3
May 13at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 12at HOUSEA 10 − 2
May 11at HOUSEA 3 − 1
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 20vs ATL2 − 4L
Sep 19vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 18vs ATL2 − 6L
Sep 17vs KC6 − 2W
Sep 16vs KC2 − 5L
Sep 15vs KC4 − 2W
Sep 13at TB4 − 14L
Sep 12at TB2 − 3L
Sep 11at TB1 − 3L
Sep 10at PHI2 − 1W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 20at COL2 − 1W
Sep 19at COL3 − 5L
Sep 18at COL5 − 4W
Sep 16at LAA7 − 2W
Sep 15at LAA1 − 2L
Sep 14at LAA4 − 6L
Sep 13at ATH7 − 8L
Sep 12at ATH19 − 1W
Sep 11at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 10vs TEX4 − 3W