bayesRatings

Angels at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAA 7 – ATH 9
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA1040010017151
ATH000002349140
Team box
LAA·ATH
15
hits
14
1
home runs
2
5
walks
3
7
strikeouts
3
169
pitches thrown
173
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos CortesATH2-2213
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4114
Vaughn GrissomLAA3-4102
Zack GelofATH1-3112
Shea LangeliersATH3-5101
Lawrence ButlerATH3-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yusei KikuchiLAA5.17212
Sam Bachman (L)LAA1.13300
Brady BassoATH2.06522
Luis Medina (W)ATH1.01011
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.03111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
LAA +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 3 · LAA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 51%, ATH 49% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
LAA by 0.5
Expected score
LAA 5.3 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.1
AngelsThe matchupAthletics
−102Our fair odds+102
5.3Expected runs4.8
−0.31Power rating−0.42
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game5.7
7.8Hits / game8.3
0.95Home runs / game1.21
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
60−96Season record61−95
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels−10251%−11252.7%———
ATHAthletics+10249%−10751.8%———
SpreadLAA by 0.5
LAALos Angeles Angels−0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Angels by 0.5 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byATH wins by →
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATHBrady Basso RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ATH
Sep 20 vs MIN
last game
Sep 20 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
LAA·ATH
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.42
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.7
60−96
season record
61−95
34−47
home record
29−46
26−49
away record
32−49
L1
streak
L6
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.3
0.95
home runs / game
1.21
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.55
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

LAA · ATH · 178 days
Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Jun 28at LAALAA 4 − 1
Jun 27at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jun 26at LAAATH 9 − 3
Jun 21at ATHLAA 9 − 7
Jun 20at ATHLAA 7 − 0
Jun 19at ATHATH 12 − 11
Jun 18at ATHATH 5 − 0
May 21at LAAATH 3 − 2
May 20at LAAATH 6 − 5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 20vs MIN0 − 8L
Sep 19vs MIN6 − 5W
Sep 18vs MIN0 − 3L
Sep 17vs MIN5 − 4W
Sep 16vs SEA2 − 7L
Sep 15vs SEA2 − 1W
Sep 14vs SEA6 − 4W
Sep 13at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 12at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 11at WSH3 − 4L

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Sep 20at CLE0 − 1L
Sep 19at CLE6 − 12L
Sep 18at CLE3 − 5L
Sep 17at TB1 − 10L
Sep 16at TB3 − 4L
Sep 15at TB1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SEA8 − 7W
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W