bayesRatings

Twins at Angels

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final MIN 3 – LAA 0
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN200000100390
LAA000000000041
Team box
MIN·LAA
9
hits
4
1
home runs
0
0
walks
3
6
strikeouts
10
125
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Walker JenkinsMIN3-4111
Jose SiriLAA2-3000
Josh BellMIN1-4001
Ryan JeffersMIN1-3001
Brooks LeeMIN2-4100
Wade MecklerLAA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor Prielipp (W)MIN7.02028
Travis Adams (S)MIN1.00000
Grayson Rodriguez (L)LAA6.28304

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · MIN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 51%, LAA 49% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.5 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
8.8
TwinsThe matchupAngels
−104Our fair odds+104
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.16Power rating−0.28
4.5Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.16Home runs / game0.95
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
71−82Season record59−94
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · LAA chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins−10451%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10449%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins−0.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byLAA wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more27%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 6.48 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·LAA
Sep 17 at LAA
last game
Sep 17 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
MIN·LAA
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
4.5
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
71−82
season record
59−94
40−38
home record
33−45
31−44
away record
26−49
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.16
home runs / game
0.95
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.46
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

MIN · LAA · 174 days
Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Sep 17at LAALAA 5 − 4
Jul 12at MINMIN 4 − 2
Jul 11at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jul 10at MINLAA 4 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at LAALAA 12 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LAAMIN 12 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 1
Apr 25, 2025at MINMIN 11 − 4

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 17at LAA4 − 5L
Sep 16vs NYY5 − 4W
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L
Sep 9at DET2 − 7L
Sep 8at DET3 − 2W
Sep 7at DET4 − 5L

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 17vs MIN5 − 4W
Sep 16vs SEA2 − 7L
Sep 15vs SEA2 − 1W
Sep 14vs SEA6 − 4W
Sep 13at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 12at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 11at WSH3 − 4L
Sep 9at BOS6 − 4W
Sep 8at BOS6 − 1W
Sep 7at BOS2 − 5L