bayesRatings

Astros at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final HOU 13 – ATH 2
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU10203033113161
ATH000100100260
Team box
HOU·ATH
16
hits
6
5
home runs
0
4
walks
2
13
strikeouts
8
112
pitches thrown
182
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremy PenaHOU4-6424
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-5213
Isaac ParedesHOU3-5211
Lucas SpenceHOU2-5112
Jose AltuveHOU2-4102
Zack GelofATH2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hayden Wesneski (W)HOU7.06115
Jack Perkins (L)ATH5.05639

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +11
HOU +11
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · HOU 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 56%, ATH 44% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
HOU by 1.0
Expected score
HOU 5.8 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.5
AstrosThe matchupAthletics
−129Our fair odds+129
5.8Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.40
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.3
1.38Home runs / game1.21
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
79−81Season record64−96
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · ATH chance
Our model fair56.4%43.6%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−12956%−16862.7%———
ATHAthletics+12944%+14041.7%———
SpreadHOU by 1.0
HOUHouston Astros−1our margin————
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.0 expected
Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byATH wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more45%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more36%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUHayden Wesneski SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 8 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·ATH
Sep 25 at ATH
last game
Sep 25 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
HOU·ATH
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.40
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
79−81
season record
64−96
39−42
home record
32−47
40−39
away record
32−49
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.3
1.38
home runs / game
1.21
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.45
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

HOU · ATH · 182 days
Houston AstrosAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Sep 25at ATHATH 6 − 5
Sep 24at ATHHOU 7 − 5
Aug 23at HOUATH 7 − 6
Aug 22at HOUATH 4 − 3
Aug 21at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Jun 7at HOUATH 5 − 0
Jun 6at HOUHOU 13 − 2
Jun 5at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 25at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 24at ATH7 − 5W
Sep 23at SEA5 − 6L
Sep 22at SEA7 − 0W
Sep 20vs ATL2 − 4L
Sep 19vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 18vs ATL2 − 6L
Sep 17vs KC6 − 2W
Sep 16vs KC2 − 5L
Sep 15vs KC4 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 25vs HOU6 − 5W
Sep 24vs HOU5 − 7L
Sep 23vs LAA7 − 3W
Sep 22vs LAA9 − 7W
Sep 20at CLE0 − 1L
Sep 19at CLE6 − 12L
Sep 18at CLE3 − 5L
Sep 17at TB1 − 10L
Sep 16at TB3 − 4L
Sep 15at TB1 − 2L