bayesRatings

Guardians at Royals

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CLE 12 – KC 9
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE2101300051291
KC1202000229141
Team box
CLE·KC
9
hits
14
2
home runs
3
13
walks
5
3
strikeouts
6
176
pitches thrown
182
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carter JensenKC2-4225
Angel MartinezCLE2-5004
Jac CaglianoneKC3-5002
David FryCLE1-4112
Salvador PerezKC1-4112
Austin HedgesCLE1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin WilliamsCLE3.15444
Hunter Gaddis (W)CLE1.03200
Noah CameronKC5.07643
Nate Pearson (L)KC0.20440

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · CLE 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 53%, KC 47% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.5 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.5
GuardiansThe matchupRoyals
−113Our fair odds+113
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.03Power rating−0.17
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game8.3
0.96Home runs / game1.04
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
83−76Season record68−91
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · KC chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−11353%−14258.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11347%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byKC wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 27 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·KC
Sep 24 at BOS
last game
Sep 24 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
CLE·KC
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.9
83−76
season record
68−91
41−40
home record
40−38
42−36
away record
28−53
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
8.3
0.96
home runs / game
1.04
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.52
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · KC · 181 days
Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Aug 30at CLECLE 11 − 1
Aug 29at CLEKC 8 − 3
Aug 28at CLEKC 3 − 0
May 7at KCCLE 8 − 5
May 6at KCCLE 3 − 1
May 5at KCKC 5 − 3
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 24at BOS1 − 0W
Sep 23at BOS0 − 1L
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 20vs ATH1 − 0W
Sep 19vs ATH12 − 6W
Sep 18vs ATH5 − 3W
Sep 16vs CHW6 − 3W
Sep 15vs CHW7 − 6W
Sep 14vs CHW3 − 7L
Sep 13at MIN9 − 2W

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 24vs CHW1 − 9L
Sep 23vs CHW5 − 4W
Sep 22vs CHW11 − 14L
Sep 20at PIT3 − 4L
Sep 19at PIT5 − 6L
Sep 18at PIT5 − 8L
Sep 17at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 16at HOU5 − 2W
Sep 15at HOU2 − 4L
Sep 13at BOS1 − 4L