bayesRatings

Guardians at Royals

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CLE 11 – KC 5
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE04100110411141
KC3000000205102
Team box
CLE·KC
14
hits
10
5
home runs
0
4
walks
1
4
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
173
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE3-4322
Patrick BaileyCLE2-5223
Nathaniel LoweCLE1-3004
Steven KwanCLE3-4001
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4202
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (W)CLE6.07316
Michael Wacha (L)KC6.16214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: KC 3 · CLE 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 53%, KC 47% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.6 – 4.1 KC
Expected total
8.7
GuardiansThe matchupRoyals
−114Our fair odds+114
4.6Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating−0.18
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game5.0
7.9Hits / game8.3
0.97Home runs / game1.05
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
84−76Season record68−92
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · KC chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−11453%−11252.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11447%−10751.8%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byKC wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more40%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more30%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 7.47 ERA, 10 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·KC
Sep 25 at KC
last game
Sep 25 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
CLE·KC
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.0
84−76
season record
68−92
41−40
home record
40−39
43−36
away record
28−53
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
8.3
0.97
home runs / game
1.05
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.52
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · KC · 182 days
Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
Sep 25at KCCLE 12 − 9
Aug 30at CLECLE 11 − 1
Aug 29at CLEKC 8 − 3
Aug 28at CLEKC 3 − 0
May 7at KCCLE 8 − 5
May 6at KCCLE 3 − 1
May 5at KCKC 5 − 3
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 25at KC12 − 9W
Sep 24at BOS1 − 0W
Sep 23at BOS0 − 1L
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 20vs ATH1 − 0W
Sep 19vs ATH12 − 6W
Sep 18vs ATH5 − 3W
Sep 16vs CHW6 − 3W
Sep 15vs CHW7 − 6W
Sep 14vs CHW3 − 7L

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 25vs CLE9 − 12L
Sep 24vs CHW1 − 9L
Sep 23vs CHW5 − 4W
Sep 22vs CHW11 − 14L
Sep 20at PIT3 − 4L
Sep 19at PIT5 − 6L
Sep 18at PIT5 − 8L
Sep 17at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 16at HOU5 − 2W
Sep 15at HOU2 − 4L