Final · our forecast was NY 42%, SA 58% · Updated Jun 5
Expected margin
SA by 1.4
Expected score
SA 112.8 – 111.4 NY
Expected total
224.2
KnicksThe matchupSpurs
+140Our fair odds−140
111.4Expected points112.8
+0.88Power rating+0.98
116.5Points / game119.7
110.2Allowed / game111.7
47.7FG%48.4
37.23P%35.8
45.8Rebounds / game47.0
54−29 · 13−2 postSeason record62−21 · 12−7 post
10−0Last 106−4
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · SA chance
Our model fair41.6%58.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
Team
Our modelfair
Kalshi
Polymarket US
ProphetX
Novig
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks
+14042%
—
—
—
—
SASan Antonio Spurs
−14058%
—
—
—
—
SpreadSA by 1.4
NYNew York Knicks
+1.4our margin
—
—
—
—
SASan Antonio Spurs
−1.4our margin
—
—
—
—
Totalwe expect 224.2
Over
224.2our total
—
—
—
—
Under
224.2our total
—
—
—
—
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
San Antonio Spurs by 1.4 expected
40302010010203040
← NY wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more44%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more30%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%
Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.
Total range
224.2 expected
180200220240260
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%
Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.