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Raptors at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Oct 25 · 6:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final TOR 94 – MIN 117
← NBA / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR2126153294
MIN32233527117
Team box
TOR·MIN
35-91
field goals
43-77
10-38
3-pointers
15-31
14-21
free throws
16-25
34
rebounds
49
20
assists
26
17
turnovers
24
50
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN282613
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR312242
RJ BarrettTOR322022
Immanuel QuickleyTOR281932
LaMelo BallMIN171518
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN231543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +32
TOR +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 32 · TOR 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 39%, MIN 61% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
MIN by 3.6
Expected score
MIN 115.7 – 112.1 TOR
Expected total
227.8
RaptorsThe matchupTimberwolves
+159Our fair odds−159
112.1Expected points115.7
+0.38Power rating+0.50
123.5Points / game123.0
97.0Allowed / game99.5
44.5FG%45.0
26.53P%40.0
52.0Rebounds / game56.5
2−0Season record2−0
6−4Last 105−5
Kawhi Leonard · Malachi Smith
Nate BittleOutDonte DiVincenzo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshi42.7%60.7%
Polymarket US43.7%60.7%
ProphetX42.5%60.2%
Novig41.5%59.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 5:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 5:59 PM CT
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+15939%+13442.7%+12943.7%+13542.5%+14141.5%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−15961%−15460.7%−15460.7%−15160.2%−14459.0%
SpreadMIN by 3.6
TORToronto Raptors+3.6our margin+3.5 −10751.8%+3.5 −10751.7%+3.5 −10350.8%+3.5 +10249.5%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−3.6our margin−3.5 −11653.7%−3.5 −11252.7%−3.5 −10852.0%−3.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 227.8
Over227.8our totalo229.5 −10350.7%o229.5 −10350.7%o229.5 −10050.0%o229.5 +10449.0%
Under227.8our totalu229.5 −12154.7%u229.5 −11653.7%u229.5 −11553.6%u229.5 −10852.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 3.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more50%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more35%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.8 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIN
Oct 23 at WSH
last game
Oct 23 at ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 6:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORKawhi Leonard · fracture left knee effusion / swellingOut
TORMalachi Smith · g league - two-wayOut
TORNate Bittle · right foot avulsionOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair / surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
TOR·MIN
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
123.5
points / game
123.0
97.0
points allowed / game
99.5
2−0
season record
2−0
1−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
2−0
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
44.5
FG%
45.0
26.5
3P%
40.0
52.0
rebounds / game
56.5
28.0
assists / game
26.5
14.0
turnovers / game
14.0
55.0
points in paint / game
42.0

Rating Trend

TOR · MIN · 5 days
Toronto RaptorsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Mar 5at MINMIN 115 − 107
Feb 4at TORMIN 128 − 126
Nov 21, 2024at TORTOR 110 − 105
Oct 26, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 101
Apr 3, 2024at MINMIN 133 − 85
Oct 25, 2023at TORTOR 97 − 94
Mar 18, 2023at TORTOR 122 − 107
Jan 19, 2023at MINMIN 128 − 126
Mar 30, 2022at TORTOR 125 − 102
Feb 16, 2022at MINTOR 103 − 91

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 23at WSH112 − 102W
Oct 21vs CHI135 − 92W
May 3at CLE102 − 114L
May 1vs CLE112 − 110W
Apr 29at CLE120 − 125L
Apr 26vs CLE93 − 89W
Apr 23vs CLE126 − 104W
Apr 20at CLE105 − 115L
Apr 18at CLE113 − 126L
Apr 12vs BKN136 − 101W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L
May 4at SA104 − 102W
Apr 30vs DEN110 − 98W
Apr 27at DEN113 − 125L