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Timberwolves at Cavaliers

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final MIN 125 – CLE 127
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
MIN3129262712125
CLE2426362714127
Team box
MIN·CLE
49-102
field goals
46-102
13-40
3-pointers
18-45
14-23
free throws
17-23
54
rebounds
50
25
assists
30
18
turnovers
12
58
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN414744
Donovan MitchellCLE382657
James HardenCLE391959
Evan MobleyCLE3818103
Meleek ThomasCLE191620
Peyton WatsonCLE371581

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +15
MIN +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: CLE 4 · MIN 15lead changes: 23

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 44%, CLE 56% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
CLE by 2.5
Expected score
CLE 117.8 – 115.3 MIN
Expected total
233.1
TimberwolvesThe matchupCavaliers
+128Our fair odds−128
115.3Expected points117.8
+0.58Power rating+0.35
121.0Points / game115.5
97.7Allowed / game117.5
48.7FG%48.0
42.73P%33.0
54.0Rebounds / game45.5
3−0Season record1−1
6−4Last 104−6
Donte DiVincenzoOutJr., Ernest Udeh · Khalifa Diop
Nae'Qwan Tomlin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket US44.7%59.7%
ProphetX43.2%59.2%
Novig42.0%58.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 5:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 5:57 PM CT
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+12844%+12444.7%+12444.7%+13243.2%+13842.0%
CLECleveland Cavaliers−12856%−14859.7%−14859.7%−14559.2%−14158.5%
SpreadCLE by 2.5
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+2.5our margin+3.5 −10751.8%+3.5 −10751.7%+3.5 −10350.8%+3.5 +10249.5%
CLECleveland Cavaliers−2.5our margin−3.5 −11252.7%−3.5 −11252.7%−3.5 −10852.0%−3.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 233.1
Over233.1our totalo234.5 −10350.7%o234.5 −10350.7%o234.5 +10149.8%o234.5 +10449.0%
Under233.1our totalu234.5 −12154.7%u234.5 −11653.7%u234.5 −11252.9%u234.5 −10852.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 2.5 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more47%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more32%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.1 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Oct 25 vs TOR
last game
Oct 24 vs BKN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair / surgeryOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEJr., Ernest Udeh · g league - two-wayOut
CLEKhalifa Diop · left knee injury managementOut
CLENae'Qwan Tomlin · left low back stress reactionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
MIN·CLE
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
121.0
points / game
115.5
97.7
points allowed / game
117.5
3−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
1−0
2−0
away record
0−1
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
48.7
FG%
48.0
42.7
3P%
33.0
54.0
rebounds / game
45.5
26.3
assists / game
24.5
17.3
turnovers / game
22.0
46.7
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 6 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jan 10at CLECLE 146 − 134
Jan 8at MINMIN 131 − 122
Feb 10, 2025at CLECLE 128 − 107
Jan 18, 2025at MINCLE 124 − 117
Mar 22, 2024at MINMIN 104 − 91
Mar 8, 2024at CLECLE 113 − 104
Jan 14, 2023at MINMIN 110 − 102
Nov 13, 2022at CLEMIN 129 − 124
Feb 28, 2022at CLEMIN 127 − 122
Dec 10, 2021at MINCLE 123 − 106

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 25vs TOR117 − 94W
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L
May 4at SA104 − 102W
Apr 30vs DEN110 − 98W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 24vs BKN125 − 121W
Oct 22at PHI106 − 114L
May 25vs NY93 − 130L
May 23vs NY108 − 121L
May 21at NY93 − 109L
May 19at NY104 − 115L
May 17at DET125 − 94W
May 15vs DET94 − 115L
May 13at DET117 − 113W
May 11vs DET112 − 103W