bayesRatings

Eagles at Giants

NFL · Thursday, Oct 9 · 7:15 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final PHI 17 – NYG 34
← NFL / Oct 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI1070017
NYG1377734
Team box
PHI·NYG
339
total yards
366
266
passing yards
194
73
rushing yards
172
20
first downs
25
1-9
third downs
11-16
2
turnovers
0
29:01
time of possession
30:59
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI24/3328311
Jaxson DartNYG17/2519510
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI12580
Cam SkatteboNYG19983
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dallas GoedertPHI91101
Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG6841

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +17
PHI +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 17 · PHI 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 78%, NYG 22% · Updated Oct 9, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 12.9
Expected score
PHI 27.6 – 14.8 NYG
Expected total
42.4
EaglesThe matchupGiants
−356Our fair odds+356
27.6Expected points14.8
+0.88Power rating−0.80
25.0Points / game17.4
21.8Allowed / game25.4
262Total yards / game321
4.4Yards / play4.9
162Passing yards / game204
4−1Season record1−4
9−1Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NYG chance
Our model fair78.1%21.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−35678%————
NYGNew York Giants+35622%————
SpreadPHI by 12.9
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−12.9our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+12.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.4
Over42.4our total————
Under42.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 12.9 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 6%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 1%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 3 points: 3%New York Giants by 4 points: 1%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%
← PHI wins byNYG wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more76%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more65%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more60%
Within 3 points either way13%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.4 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.548%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 63% completions, 212 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · last 2 games: 65% completions, 156 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NYG
Oct 5, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Oct 5, 2025 at NO
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
PHI·NYG
+0.88
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
25.0
points / game
17.4
21.8
points allowed / game
25.4
4−1
season record
1−4
2−1
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
0−3
L1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
2−8
262
total yards / game
321
4.4
yards / play
4.9
162
passing yards / game
204
100
rushing yards / game
117
17.4
first downs / game
20.2
0.2
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

PHI · NYG · 13 days
Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYG 2−7
Jan 5, 2025at PHIPHI 20 − 13
Oct 20, 2024at NYGPHI 28 − 3
Jan 7, 2024at NYGNYG 27 − 10
Dec 25, 2023at PHIPHI 33 − 25
Jan 21, 2023at PHIPHI 38 − 7post
Jan 8, 2023at PHIPHI 22 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at NYGPHI 48 − 22
Dec 26, 2021at PHIPHI 34 − 10
Nov 28, 2021at NYGNYG 13 − 7

PHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025vs NYG20 − 13W

NYG · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L
Dec 8, 2024vs NO11 − 14L