bayesRatings

Cardinals at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final ARI 27 – IND 31
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI7314327
IND7731431
Team box
ARI·IND
400
total yards
355
312
passing yards
205
88
rushing yards
150
25
first downs
25
9-14
third downs
4-8
1
turnovers
1
32:05
time of possession
27:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI27/4432021
Daniel JonesIND22/3021221
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Michael CarterARI9340
Jonathan TaylorIND211231
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay JonesARI5790
Tyler WarrenIND6631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +7
ARI +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 7 · ARI 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 34%, IND 66% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 6.4
Expected score
IND 26.4 – 20.0 ARI
Expected total
46.4
CardinalsThe matchupColts
+196Our fair odds−196
20.0Expected points26.4
−0.15Power rating+0.28
20.6Points / game32.6
19.2Allowed / game17.8
288Total yards / game381
4.9Yards / play6.3
170Passing yards / game253
2−3Season record4−1
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · IND chance
Our model fair33.8%66.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+19634%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−19666%————
SpreadIND by 6.4
ARIArizona Cardinals+6.4our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.4
Over46.4our total————
Under46.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 6.4 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%
← ARI wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more61%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more45%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.4 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 59% completions, 43 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 71% completions, 234 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·IND
Oct 5, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Oct 5, 2025 vs LV
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ARI·IND
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
20.6
points / game
32.6
19.2
points allowed / game
17.8
2−3
season record
4−1
1−2
home record
3−0
1−1
away record
1−1
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
288
total yards / game
381
4.9
yards / play
6.3
170
passing yards / game
253
118
rushing yards / game
128
17.0
first downs / game
23.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

ARI · IND · 14 days
Arizona CardinalsIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · IND 1−0
Dec 25, 2021at ARIIND 22 − 16

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs SEA18 − 30L

IND · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L
Dec 1, 2024at NE25 − 24W