bayesRatings

Cowboys at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final DAL 27 – CAR 30
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL3147327
CAR31071030
Team box
DAL·CAR
292
total yards
410
261
passing yards
194
31
rushing yards
216
15
first downs
27
5-12
third downs
3-8
0
turnovers
1
27:58
time of possession
32:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL25/3426130
Bryce YoungCAR17/2519931
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL13290
Rico DowdleCAR301830
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George PickensDAL91681
Rico DowdleCAR4561

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +7
DAL +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 3 · DAL 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 54%, CAR 46% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 1.4
Expected score
DAL 27.8 – 26.4 CAR
Expected total
54.2
CowboysThe matchupPanthers
−119Our fair odds+119
27.8Expected points26.4
−0.16Power rating−0.63
30.2Points / game20.4
30.8Allowed / game23.8
407Total yards / game315
6.2Yards / play4.9
272Passing yards / game187
2−2−1Season record2−3
4−5−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · CAR chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys−11954%————
CARCarolina Panthers+11946%————
SpreadDAL by 1.4
DALDallas Cowboys−1.4our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 54.2
Over54.2our total————
Under54.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 1.4 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%
← DAL wins byCAR wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more50%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more32%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

54.2 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: <1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 47.564%
Total over 54.547%
Total over 61.531%
Total from 48 to 6133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 73% completions, 269 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 63% completions, 156 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·CAR
Oct 5, 2025 at NYJ
last game
Oct 5, 2025 vs MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DAL·CAR
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.63
30.2
points / game
20.4
30.8
points allowed / game
23.8
2−2−1
season record
2−3
1−0−1
home record
2−0
1−2
away record
0−3
W1
streak
W1
4−5−1
last 10
4−6
407
total yards / game
315
6.2
yards / play
4.9
272
passing yards / game
187
134
rushing yards / game
128
25.0
first downs / game
20.6
1.2
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

DAL · CAR · 14 days
Dallas CowboysCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · CAR 0−3
Dec 15, 2024at CARDAL 30 − 14
Nov 19, 2023at CARDAL 33 − 10
Oct 3, 2021at DALDAL 36 − 28

DAL · Last 10

4−5−1 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W
Dec 9, 2024vs CIN20 − 27L

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at PHI16 − 22L