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Broncos at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 8:30 AM CT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · neutral site · Final DEN 13 – NYJ 11
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN1000313
NYJ605011
Team box
DEN·NYJ
246
total yards
82
168
passing yards
-10
78
rushing yards
92
12
first downs
8
5-15
third downs
2-15
1
turnovers
0
31:08
time of possession
28:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN19/3017410
Justin FieldsNYJ9/174500
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN14400
Breece HallNYJ22590
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Evan EngramDEN5420
Josh ReynoldsNYJ3250

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +4
DEN +4
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 3 · DEN 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 73%, NYJ 27% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 11.1
Expected score
DEN 27.4 – 16.3 NYJ
Expected total
43.7
BroncosThe matchupJets
−274Our fair odds+274
27.4Expected points16.3
+0.34Power rating−0.74
23.4Points / game22.4
16.8Allowed / game31.4
355Total yards / game319
5.5Yards / play5.2
215Passing yards / game175
3−2Season record0−5
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair73.2%26.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−27473%————
NYJNew York Jets+27427%————
SpreadDEN by 11.1
DENDenver Broncos−11.1our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+11.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 11.1 expected
Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 33 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 30 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 6%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 1%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 4%New York Jets by 4 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%
← DEN wins byNYJ wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more74%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more61%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more54%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 63% completions, 240 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 65% completions, 179 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·NYJ
Oct 5, 2025 at PHI
last game
Oct 5, 2025 vs DAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DEN·NYJ
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.74
23.4
points / game
22.4
16.8
points allowed / game
31.4
3−2
season record
0−5
2−0
home record
0−3
1−2
away record
0−2
W2
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
2−8
355
total yards / game
319
5.5
yards / play
5.2
215
passing yards / game
175
141
rushing yards / game
144
20.8
first downs / game
20.6
1.2
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

DEN · NYJ · 14 days
Denver BroncosNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · NYJ 2−2
Sep 29, 2024at NYJDEN 10 − 9
Oct 8, 2023at DENNYJ 31 − 21
Oct 23, 2022at DENNYJ 16 − 9
Sep 26, 2021at DENDEN 26 − 0

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs IND31 − 13W

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W
Dec 8, 2024at MIA26 − 32L