bayesRatings

Lions at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 7:20 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final DET 17 – KC 30
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET370717
KC6771030
Team box
DET·KC
297
total yards
355
199
passing yards
243
98
rushing yards
112
18
first downs
26
5-11
third downs
4-10
0
turnovers
0
29:23
time of possession
30:37
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET23/2920320
Patrick MahomesKC22/3025730
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET17650
Isiah PachecoKC12510
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jameson WilliamsDET6661
Travis KelceKC6780

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +13
DET +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 13 · DET 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 61%, KC 39% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 6.2
Expected score
DET 29.0 – 22.8 KC
Expected total
51.7
LionsThe matchupChiefs
−159Our fair odds+159
29.0Expected points22.8
+1.18Power rating+0.38
34.8Points / game25.0
22.4Allowed / game21.4
365Total yards / game361
6.0Yards / play5.8
230Passing yards / game241
4−1Season record2−3
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · KC chance
Our model fair61.5%38.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−15961%————
KCKansas City Chiefs+15939%————
SpreadDET by 6.2
DETDetroit Lions−6.2our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs+6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.7
Over51.7our total————
Under51.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 6.2 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 9%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 6%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byKC wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more64%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more46%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.7 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.566%
Total over 51.548%
Total over 58.532%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 71% completions, 209 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 66% completions, 271 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·KC
Oct 5, 2025 at CIN
last game
Oct 6, 2025 at JAX
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DET·KC
+1.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
34.8
points / game
25.0
22.4
points allowed / game
21.4
4−1
season record
2−3
2−0
home record
1−1
2−1
away record
1−2
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
365
total yards / game
361
6.0
yards / play
5.8
230
passing yards / game
241
135
rushing yards / game
120
20.8
first downs / game
21.4
0.6
turnovers / game
0.4

Rating Trend

DET · KC · 14 days
Detroit LionsKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · KC 0−1
Sep 7, 2023at KCDET 21 − 20

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024vs BUF42 − 48L

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L
Dec 25, 2024at PIT29 − 10W