bayesRatings

Chargers at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final LAC 29 – MIA 27
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC6314629
MIA7601427
Team box
LAC·MIA
403
total yards
341
263
passing yards
204
140
rushing yards
137
20
first downs
19
6-15
third downs
5-11
1
turnovers
3
34:19
time of possession
25:41
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC29/3826420
Tua TagovailoaMIA21/3220513
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kimani VidalLAC181240
De'Von AchaneMIA161282
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ladd McConkeyLAC71001
Jaylen WaddleMIA6950

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +13
LAC +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 4 · LAC 13lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 53%, MIA 47% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 1.7
Expected score
LAC 21.9 – 20.1 MIA
Expected total
42.0
ChargersThe matchupDolphins
−115Our fair odds+115
21.9Expected points20.1
+0.09Power rating−0.35
19.6Points / game21.4
19.6Allowed / game29.0
352Total yards / game279
5.6Yards / play5.3
235Passing yards / game196
3−2Season record1−4
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · MIA chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers−11553%————
MIAMiami Dolphins+11547%————
SpreadLAC by 1.7
LACLos Angeles Chargers−1.7our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.0
Over42.0our total————
Under42.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 1.7 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%
← LAC wins byMIA wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more51%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more32%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.0 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.567%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 62% completions, 223 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 69% completions, 193 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·MIA
Oct 5, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Oct 5, 2025 at CAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
LAC·MIA
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.35
19.6
points / game
21.4
19.6
points allowed / game
29.0
3−2
season record
1−4
2−1
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
0−3
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
352
total yards / game
279
5.6
yards / play
5.3
235
passing yards / game
196
117
rushing yards / game
82
20.2
first downs / game
16.2
1.4
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

LAC · MIA · 14 days
Los Angeles ChargersMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIA 1−1
Sep 10, 2023at LACMIA 36 − 34
Dec 11, 2022at LACLAC 23 − 17

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W
Dec 15, 2024vs TB17 − 40L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024vs NYJ32 − 26W