bayesRatings

Rams at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final LAR 17 – BAL 3
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR0314017
BAL30003
Team box
LAR·BAL
241
total yards
296
167
passing yards
117
74
rushing yards
179
15
first downs
19
4-10
third downs
7-17
1
turnovers
3
22:05
time of possession
37:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR17/2618110
Cooper RushBAL11/197201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR13501
Derrick HenryBAL241220
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyler HigbeeLAR4401
Zay FlowersBAL6460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +14
LAR +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 3 · LAR 14lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 44%, BAL 56% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 2.6
Expected score
BAL 28.9 – 26.2 LAR
Expected total
55.1
RamsThe matchupRavens
+126Our fair odds−126
26.2Expected points28.9
+0.26Power rating+0.21
24.6Points / game28.2
21.4Allowed / game35.4
402Total yards / game312
6.3Yards / play6.2
290Passing yards / game196
3−2Season record1−4
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · BAL chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams+12644%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−12656%————
SpreadBAL by 2.6
LARLos Angeles Rams+2.6our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 55.1
Over55.1our total————
Under55.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 2.6 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%
← LAR wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more50%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more34%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.1 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.564%
Total over 55.547%
Total over 62.532%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 64% completions, 320 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted
BALCooper Rush · last 3 games: 62% completions, 126 yds/game, 1 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·BAL
Oct 2, 2025 vs SF
last game
Oct 5, 2025 vs HOU
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
LAR·BAL
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
24.6
points / game
28.2
21.4
points allowed / game
35.4
3−2
season record
1−4
2−1
home record
1−2
1−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
402
total yards / game
312
6.3
yards / play
6.2
290
passing yards / game
196
112
rushing yards / game
116
22.6
first downs / game
16.8
1.2
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

LAR · BAL · 14 days
Los Angeles RamsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · BAL 1−1
Dec 10, 2023at BALBAL 37 − 31
Jan 2, 2022at BALLAR 20 − 19

LAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W
Dec 22, 2024at NYJ19 − 9W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W
Dec 21, 2024vs PIT34 − 17W