bayesRatings

Patriots at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final NE 25 – NO 19
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE1483025
NO6100319
Team box
NE·NO
333
total yards
296
260
passing yards
223
73
rushing yards
73
19
first downs
17
6-13
third downs
3-9
0
turnovers
1
31:44
time of possession
28:16
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE18/2626130
Spencer RattlerNO20/2622700
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Drake MayeNE9280
Alvin KamaraNO10310
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kayshon BoutteNE5932
Chris OlaveNO6980

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +9
NE +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 3 · NE 9lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 50%, NO 50% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
NO by 0.0
Expected score
NO 20.1 – 20.1 NE
Expected total
40.3
PatriotsThe matchupSaints
+100Our fair odds+100
20.1Expected points20.1
−0.28Power rating−0.57
25.0Points / game18.4
20.2Allowed / game27.0
337Total yards / game307
5.7Yards / play4.7
241Passing yards / game190
3−2Season record1−4
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · NO chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+10050%————
NONew Orleans Saints+10050%————
SpreadNO by 0.0
NENew England PatriotsPKour margin————
NONew Orleans SaintsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 40.3
Over40.3our total————
Under40.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 3%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 9%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%
← NE wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more43%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more27%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.3 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 76% completions, 248 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 69% completions, 190 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·NO
Oct 5, 2025 at BUF
last game
Oct 5, 2025 vs NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NE·NO
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
25.0
points / game
18.4
20.2
points allowed / game
27.0
3−2
season record
1−4
1−2
home record
1−2
2−0
away record
0−2
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
337
total yards / game
307
5.7
yards / play
4.7
241
passing yards / game
190
95
rushing yards / game
117
19.8
first downs / game
20.6
1.4
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

NE · NO · 14 days
New England PatriotsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NO 2−0
Oct 8, 2023at NENO 34 − 0
Sep 26, 2021at NENO 28 − 13

NE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024vs IND24 − 25L

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024at NYG14 − 11W