bayesRatings

49ers at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 3:25 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final SF 19 – TB 30
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF3133019
TB7137330
Team box
SF·TB
363
total yards
352
296
passing yards
248
67
rushing yards
104
17
first downs
19
7-16
third downs
3-8
2
turnovers
0
32:35
time of possession
27:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Mac JonesSF27/3934702
Baker MayfieldTB17/2325620
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF17541
Rachaad WhiteTB17651
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kendrick BourneSF51420
Kameron JohnsonTB4641

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +11
SF +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 11 · SF 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 38%, TB 62% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 5.1
Expected score
TB 27.9 – 22.8 SF
Expected total
50.8
49ersThe matchupBuccaneers
+163Our fair odds−163
22.8Expected points27.9
+0.17Power rating+0.40
21.2Points / game27.0
19.6Allowed / game26.4
376Total yards / game354
5.4Yards / play5.6
291Passing yards / game243
4−1Season record4−1
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · TB chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+16338%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−16362%————
SpreadTB by 5.1
SFSan Francisco 49ers+5.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.8
Over50.8our total————
Under50.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.1 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%
← SF wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more42%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.8 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.567%
Total over 50.548%
Total over 57.532%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 67% completions, 302 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 69% completions, 300 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·TB
Oct 2, 2025 at LAR
last game
Oct 5, 2025 at SEA
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SF·TB
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
21.2
points / game
27.0
19.6
points allowed / game
26.4
4−1
season record
4−1
1−1
home record
1−1
3−0
away record
3−0
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
376
total yards / game
354
5.4
yards / play
5.6
291
passing yards / game
243
85
rushing yards / game
110
23.0
first downs / game
20.6
1.6
turnovers / game
0.4

Rating Trend

SF · TB · 14 days
San Francisco 49ersTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · TB 0−3
Nov 10, 2024at TBSF 23 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at SFSF 27 − 14
Dec 11, 2022at SFSF 35 − 7

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L
Dec 8, 2024vs CHI38 − 13W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L
Dec 15, 2024at LAC40 − 17W