bayesRatings

Seahawks at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final SEA 20 – JAX 12
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA0137020
JAX600612
Team box
SEA·JAX
346
total yards
273
286
passing yards
214
60
rushing yards
59
13
first downs
17
1-12
third downs
4-16
0
turnovers
0
26:39
time of possession
33:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA16/2729520
Trevor LawrenceJAX27/4225820
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA10340
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX12270
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81621
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX8901

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +14
SEA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 6 · SEA 14lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 50%, JAX 50% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 1.1
Expected score
SEA 22.9 – 21.8 JAX
Expected total
44.6
SeahawksThe matchupJaguars
+100Our fair odds−100
22.9Expected points21.8
+0.27Power rating−0.02
29.2Points / game25.4
21.0Allowed / game20.0
358Total yards / game343
6.3Yards / play5.4
245Passing yards / game206
3−2Season record4−1
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · JAX chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks+10050%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−10050%————
SpreadSEA by 1.1
SEASeattle Seahawks−1.1our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.6
Over44.6our total————
Under44.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 1.1 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 9%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%
← SEA wins byJAX wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more50%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more31%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.6 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 77% completions, 267 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 61% completions, 206 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·JAX
Oct 5, 2025 vs TB
last game
Oct 6, 2025 vs KC
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SEA·JAX
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
29.2
points / game
25.4
21.0
points allowed / game
20.0
3−2
season record
4−1
1−2
home record
3−0
2−0
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
358
total yards / game
343
6.3
yards / play
5.4
245
passing yards / game
206
113
rushing yards / game
137
20.8
first downs / game
19.2
1.6
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

SEA · JAX · 14 days
Seattle SeahawksJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · JAX 0−1
Oct 31, 2021at SEASEA 31 − 7

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at ARI30 − 18W

JAX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L
Dec 8, 2024at TEN10 − 6W