bayesRatings

Titans at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 3:05 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final TEN 10 – LV 20
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN003710
LV377320
Team box
TEN·LV
225
total yards
226
160
passing yards
158
65
rushing yards
68
15
first downs
16
3-13
third downs
6-13
3
turnovers
1
27:34
time of possession
32:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN26/3822211
Geno SmithLV17/2317411
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN10340
Ashton JeantyLV23751
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Van JeffersonTEN4750
Tre TuckerLV5700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +17
TEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 17 · TEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 41%, LV 59% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
LV by 5.9
Expected score
LV 23.1 – 17.2 TEN
Expected total
40.3
TitansThe matchupRaiders
+147Our fair odds−147
17.2Expected points23.1
−0.87Power rating−0.74
14.6Points / game16.6
28.2Allowed / game27.8
234Total yards / game323
3.9Yards / play5.4
149Passing yards / game210
1−4Season record1−4
1−9Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · LV chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+14741%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−14759%————
SpreadLV by 5.9
TENTennessee Titans+5.9our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.3
Over40.3our total————
Under40.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Las Vegas Raiders by 5.9 expected
Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 7%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%
← TEN wins byLV wins by →
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 3 or more60%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 7 or more44%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.3 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 52% completions, 197 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 67% completions, 211 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·LV
Oct 5, 2025 at ARI
last game
Oct 5, 2025 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
TEN·LV
−0.87
rating (0 = average)
−0.74
14.6
points / game
16.6
28.2
points allowed / game
27.8
1−4
season record
1−4
0−2
home record
0−2
1−2
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L4
1−9
last 10
3−7
234
total yards / game
323
3.9
yards / play
5.4
149
passing yards / game
210
85
rushing yards / game
113
15.2
first downs / game
18.4
1.4
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

TEN · LV · 14 days
Tennessee TitansLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LV 0−1
Sep 25, 2022at TENTEN 24 − 22

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L
Dec 8, 2024vs JAX6 − 10L

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L
Dec 8, 2024at TB13 − 28L