bayesRatings

Sharks at Avalanche

NHL · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final SJ 2 – COL 4
← NHL / Feb 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ0022
COL0224
Team box
SJ·COL
25
shots
42
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
39.3
faceoff %
60.7
24
hits
16
21
blocked shots
5
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Valeri NichushkinCOL032
Artturi LehkonenCOL205
Nathan MacKinnonCOL024
Brock NelsonCOL105
Josh MansonCOL104
Timothy LiljegrenSJ102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ4138.927
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL2523.920

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 2 · SJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 26%, COL 74% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
COL by 1.9
Expected score
COL 4.5 – 2.7 SJ
Expected total
7.2
SharksThe matchupAvalanche
+283Our fair odds−283
2.7Expected goals4.5
−0.33Power rating+0.57
3.1Goals / game3.9
3.5Allowed / game2.5
25.5Shots / game34.0
47.5Faceoff %51.0
20.6Hits / game17.1
27−27Season record36−18
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · COL chance
Our model fair26.1%73.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+28326%————
COLColorado Avalanche−28374%————
SpreadCOL by 1.9
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.9our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.2
Over7.2our total————
Under7.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.9 expected
San Jose Sharks by 8 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 3%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 4%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 21%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 8%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more60%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more48%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more9%
Decided by one goal31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.2 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 6%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 15%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 11%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.560%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 8.531%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .855 save %, 3.58 GAAstarted
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.26 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·COL
Feb 2 at CHI
last game
Feb 2 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
SJ·COL
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.57
3.1
goals / game
3.9
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.5
27−27
season record
36−18
14−12
home record
20−7
13−15
away record
16−11
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
25.5
shots / game
34.0
47.5
faceoff %
51.0
20.6
hits / game
17.1
15.5
blocked shots / game
13.4
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
15.7
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

SJ · COL · 110 days
San Jose SharksColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 9−1
Nov 26, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 0
Nov 1, 2025at SJSJ 3 − 2 OT
Mar 6, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 3
Dec 19, 2024at SJCOL 4 − 2
Oct 20, 2024at SJCOL 4 − 1
Dec 31, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 1
Dec 17, 2023at COLCOL 6 − 2
Oct 14, 2023at SJCOL 2 − 1 SO
Apr 6, 2023at SJCOL 6 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at SJCOL 4 − 3 OT

SJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Feb 2at CHI3 − 6L
Jan 31at CGY2 − 3L
Jan 29at EDM3 − 4L
Jan 27at VAN5 − 2W
Jan 23vs NYR3 − 1W
Jan 20at TB1 − 4L
Jan 19at FLA4 − 1W
Jan 16at DET2 − 4L
Jan 15at WSH3 − 2W
Jan 11vs VGK2 − 7L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Feb 2vs DET0 − 2L
Jan 31at DET5 − 0W
Jan 29at MTL3 − 7L
Jan 28at OTT2 − 5L
Jan 25at TOR4 − 1W
Jan 23vs PHI3 − 7L
Jan 21vs ANA1 − 2L
Jan 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jan 16vs NSH3 − 7L
Jan 12vs TOR3 − 4L