bayesRatings

Lightning at Islanders

NHL · Saturday, Oct 10 · 6:30 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final TB 5 – NYI 3
← NHL / Oct 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB2125
NYI0303
Team box
TB·NYI
26
shots
23
1 of 4
power play
1 of 2
49.0
faceoff %
51.0
18
hits
30
14
blocked shots
16
9
penalty minutes
13
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brandon HagelTB316
Jake GuentzelTB204
Tony DeAngeloNYI112
Maxwell CrozierTB022
Nikita KucherovTB021
Brayden SchennNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2320.870
Ilya SorokinNYI2521.840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
TB +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 0 · TB 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 54%, NYI 46% · Updated Oct 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
Expected total
5.6
LightningThe matchupIslanders
−117Our fair odds+117
2.9Expected goals2.6
+0.25Power rating−0.04
2.8Goals / game3.2
2.2Allowed / game2.0
31.2Shots / game24.2
47.5Faceoff %51.6
22.0Hits / game23.0
3−1Season record2−2
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYI chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−11754%————
NYINew York Islanders+11746%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.3our margin————
NYINew York Islanders+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 22%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 23%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 4%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byNYI wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more33%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more22%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 1.59 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 1.85 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYI
Oct 8 vs MIN
last game
Oct 8 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TB·NYI
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
2.8
goals / game
3.2
2.2
goals allowed / game
2.0
3−1
season record
2−2
3−0
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
0−2
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
31.2
shots / game
24.2
47.5
faceoff %
51.6
22.0
hits / game
23.0
15.2
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.0
takeaways / game
5.0
15.5
giveaways / game
16.0

Rating Trend

TB · NYI · 11 days
Tampa Bay LightningNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 6−4
Dec 13, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2 SO
Dec 6, 2025at TBNYI 2 − 0
Dec 2, 2025at NYINYI 2 − 1
Apr 1, 2025at NYITB 4 − 1
Mar 29, 2025at TBTB 5 − 3
Feb 1, 2025at TBNYI 3 − 2 OT
Mar 30, 2024at TBTB 4 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at NYITB 4 − 2
Feb 8, 2024at NYINYI 6 − 2
Apr 6, 2023at NYINYI 6 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 8vs MIN3 − 2W
Oct 5vs PHI4 − 1W
Oct 3vs WSH3 − 1W
Oct 1at NYR1 − 5L
May 3vs MTL1 − 2L
May 1at MTL1 − 0W
Apr 29vs MTL2 − 3L
Apr 26at MTL3 − 2W
Apr 24at MTL2 − 3L
Apr 21vs MTL3 − 2W

NYI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 8vs CHI4 − 1W
Oct 6at NYR2 − 5L
Oct 3vs NJ6 − 0W
Sep 30at TOR1 − 2L
Apr 14vs CAR1 − 2L
Apr 12vs MTL1 − 4L
Apr 11vs OTT0 − 3L
Apr 9vs TOR5 − 3W
Apr 4at CAR3 − 4L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 4L