Box score and game flow are added the next morning.
Final · our forecast was TB 61%, NSH 39% · Updated Oct 31
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 12:59 PM CT | Polymarket USpre-game · 12:59 PM CT | ProphetXpre-game · 12:57 PM CT | Novigpre-game · 1:00 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Lightning | −15761% | −18364.6% | −18364.6% | −17163.2% | −16362.0% |
| NSHNashville Predators | +15739% | +15239.6% | +15239.6% | +15239.7% | +16038.5% |
| SpreadTB by 0.8 | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Lightning | −0.8our margin | −1.5 +14041.7% | −1.5 +14041.7% | −1.5 +14540.9% | −1.5 +14740.5% |
| NSHNashville Predators | +0.8our margin | +1.5 −16862.7% | +1.5 −16862.7% | +1.5 −16161.7% | +1.5 −15661.0% |
| Totalwe expect 6.3 | |||||
| Over | 6.3our total | o6.5 −10350.7% | o6.5 −10350.7% | o6.5 +10149.8% | o6.5 +10848.0% |
| Under | 6.3our total | u6.5 −12154.7% | u6.5 −11653.7% | u6.5 −11052.4% | u6.5 −11353.0% |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.8 expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.
Total range
6.3 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Injury list before the game · Oct 31, 2026, 11:40 AM CTFor context, not in our forecast.