bayesRatings

Oilers at Rangers

NHL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 5:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.4 – 3.2 EDM
Expected total
6.6
OilersThe matchupRangers
+105Our fair odds−105
3.2Expected goals3.4
+0.13Power rating−0.06
4.3Goals / game3.1
3.3Allowed / game3.0
26.2Shots / game24.5
49.4Faceoff %53.9
26.5Hits / game26.0
9−4Season record7−7
7−3Last 104−6
Alec Regula D · Devon Levi G
Frederik Andersen G · Matt Savoie C
Mattias Janmark C
OutAdam Sykora LW · Igor Shesterkin G
Joe Veleno C · Joonas Korpisalo G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · NYR chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket US49.7%54.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:21 AM CTPolymarket US4:21 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers+10549%−10751.8%+10149.7%——
NYRNew York Rangers−10551%−11653.7%−12154.7%——
Spreadabout even
EDMEdmonton Oilers+0.1our margin−1.5 +11945.7%−1.5 +11945.7%——
NYRNew York Rangers−0.1our margin+1.5 −40480.2%+1.5 −42981.1%——
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our totalo4.5 −204295.3%o6.5 −13156.7%——
Under6.6our totalu4.5 −526898.1%u6.5 −13156.7%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 2%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 5%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 10%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 9%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more22%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
EDMMatt Tomkins G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 3.18 GAAexpected
NYRDylan Garand G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 3.22 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·NYR
Oct 28 vs CGY
last game
Oct 26 vs LA
3 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Edmonton Oilers
EDMAlec Regula D · undisclosedIR
EDMDevon Levi G · undisclosed, back about Nov 9IR
EDMFrederik Andersen G · knee, back about Dec 30IR
EDMMatt Savoie C · lower body, back about Nov 24IR
EDMMattias Janmark C · undisclosed surgeryIR
EDMZach Hyman LW · neck, back about Nov 3IR
New York Rangers
NYREeli Tolvanen RW · personal, back about Nov 1Day-to-day
NYRJames Reimer G · upper body, back about Nov 1Day-to-day
NYRAdam Sykora LW · lower body, back about Jan 25, 2027IR
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · right knee surgery, back about Sep 15, 2027IR
NYRJoe Veleno C · right lower body, back about Jan 3, 2027IR
NYRJoonas Korpisalo G · lower body, back about Nov 9IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
EDM·NYR
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.3
goals / game
3.1
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.0
9−4
season record
7−7
4−4
home record
6−1
5−0
away record
1−6
W1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
26.2
shots / game
24.5
49.4
faceoff %
53.9
26.5
hits / game
26.0
14.0
blocked shots / game
14.8
3.5
takeaways / game
4.0
15.8
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

EDM · NYR · 31 days
Edmonton OilersNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 4−6
Oct 30, 2025at EDMNYR 4 − 3 OT
Oct 14, 2025at NYREDM 2 − 0
Mar 16, 2025at NYREDM 3 − 1
Nov 23, 2024at EDMEDM 6 − 2
Dec 22, 2023at NYREDM 4 − 3
Oct 26, 2023at EDMNYR 3 − 0
Feb 17, 2023at EDMNYR 5 − 4 SO
Nov 26, 2022at NYREDM 4 − 3
Jan 3, 2022at NYRNYR 4 − 1
Nov 5, 2021at EDMEDM 6 − 5 OT

EDM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 28vs CGY4 − 0W
Oct 26vs DET3 − 4L
Oct 24vs TOR2 − 7L
Oct 22vs CAR6 − 5W
Oct 20vs MIN4 − 3W
Oct 17at UTAH6 − 2W
Oct 15vs UTAH2 − 4L
Oct 13at LA4 − 1W
Oct 10at SJ3 − 1W
Oct 7at ANA5 − 2W

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 26vs LA3 − 6L
Oct 24at OTT4 − 7L
Oct 22at TOR4 − 5L
Oct 19vs ANA5 − 2W
Oct 17at CBJ0 − 1L
Oct 15at NJ1 − 7L
Oct 13vs TB4 − 1W
Oct 11vs VAN6 − 2W
Oct 9at WSH1 − 3L
Oct 6vs NYI5 − 2W