bayesRatings

Red Wings at Avalanche

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
COL by 1.2
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.6 DET
Expected total
6.4
Red WingsThe matchupAvalanche
+188Our fair odds−188
2.6Expected goals3.8
−0.08Power rating+0.44
2.8Goals / game4.2
2.9Allowed / game3.2
29.9Shots / game30.4
50.4Faceoff %46.7
24.4Hits / game16.1
6−7Season record7−6
5−5Last 105−5
Albert Johansson D · Marco Kasper C
Mason Appleton C · Simon Edvinsson D
OutJosh Manson D · Logan O'Connor RW
Zachary L'Heureux LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · COL chance
Our model fair34.7%65.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+18835%————
COLColorado Avalanche−18865%————
SpreadCOL by 1.2
DETDetroit Red Wings+1.2our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.2 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%
← DET wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more49%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more36%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
DETnot announced yet
COLnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·COL
Oct 31 vs STL
last game
Oct 28 vs NJ
6 days
days of rest
9 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Detroit Red Wings
DETAlbert Johansson D · undisclosedOut
DETMarco Kasper C · upper body, back about Nov 10IR
DETMason Appleton C · undisclosed, back about Nov 10IR
DETSimon Edvinsson D · contract disputeIR
Colorado Avalanche
COLJosh Manson D · left ankle, back about Dec 27Out
COLLogan O'Connor RW · personalOut
COLZachary L'Heureux LW · upper body, back about Nov 7IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
DET·COL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.44
2.8
goals / game
4.2
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.2
6−7
season record
7−6
4−4
home record
5−2
2−3
away record
2−4
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
29.9
shots / game
30.4
50.4
faceoff %
46.7
24.4
hits / game
16.1
14.8
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.5
takeaways / game
4.3
15.0
giveaways / game
17.1

Rating Trend

DET · COL · 32 days
Detroit Red WingsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Feb 2at COLDET 2 − 0
Jan 31at DETCOL 5 − 0
Mar 25, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 2
Dec 7, 2024at DETCOL 2 − 1
Mar 6, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 2
Feb 22, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1 OT
Mar 18, 2023at DETCOL 5 − 1
Jan 16, 2023at COLCOL 6 − 3
Feb 23, 2022at DETCOL 5 − 2
Dec 10, 2021at COLCOL 7 − 3

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 29vs CHI4 − 1W
Oct 26at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 24at CGY1 − 4L
Oct 22at VAN5 − 2W
Oct 20at SEA3 − 4L
Oct 17vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 15vs PHI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs NJ4 − 5L
Oct 10at MTL0 − 1L
Oct 9vs SEA3 − 6L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28vs NJ5 − 2W
Oct 25at NSH2 − 6L
Oct 23vs TB6 − 3W
Oct 20at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 19at PHI2 − 3L
Oct 16vs PIT5 − 2W
Oct 14vs DAL2 − 3L
Oct 13at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 10vs TOR3 − 6L
Oct 8at CGY7 − 3W