bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TOR 2 – BAL 4
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000002260
BAL30010000441
Team box
TOR·BAL
6
hits
4
1
home runs
1
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
5
122
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL2-3213
Davis SchneiderTOR1-2112
Colton CowserBAL1-3001
Nathan LukesTOR2-4000
Coby MayoBAL1-3100
Myles StrawTOR1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
CJ Van Eyk (L)TOR5.04402
Trey Gibson (W)BAL6.23027

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
8.7
Blue JaysThe matchupOrioles
+100Our fair odds−100
4.4Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.05
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game7.8
0.95Home runs / game1.22
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
77−80Season record76−81
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10050%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10050%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBAL wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORCJ Van Eyk SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
BALTrey Gibson SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 10.03 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BAL
Sep 23 at BAL
last game
Sep 23 vs TOR
same day
days of rest
same day
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
TOR·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
77−80
season record
76−81
40−38
home record
37−42
37−42
away record
39−39
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
7.8
0.95
home runs / game
1.22
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.61
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TOR · BAL · 179 days
Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Sep 21at BALBAL 4 − 3
Sep 13at TORTOR 8 − 1
Sep 12at TORTOR 7 − 3
Sep 11at TORBAL 7 − 4
Jun 7at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 6at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 5at TORBAL 13 − 3
May 31at BALBAL 9 − 5
May 30at BALBAL 6 − 5
May 29at BALTOR 6 − 5

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 21at BAL3 − 4L
Sep 20at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 19at TEX2 − 6L
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L
Sep 14vs DET5 − 6L
Sep 13vs BAL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs BAL7 − 3W
Sep 11vs BAL4 − 7L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 21vs TOR4 − 3W
Sep 20vs MIL0 − 3L
Sep 19vs MIL0 − 1L
Sep 18vs MIL5 − 6L
Sep 16at NYM7 − 1W
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W