bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TOR 2 – BAL 4
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000002000291
BAL02002000451
Team box
TOR·BAL
9
hits
5
0
home runs
1
1
walks
4
4
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL1-3112
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-3001
Andres GimenezTOR2-4000
Ernie ClementTOR2-4000
Leody TaverasBAL1-3000
Dylan BeaversBAL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Scherzer (L)TOR5.04437
Chris Bassitt (W)BAL5.07012
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
8.7
Blue JaysThe matchupOrioles
+100Our fair odds−100
4.4Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.05
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game7.8
0.95Home runs / game1.22
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
77−80Season record76−81
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:34 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10050%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10050%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBAL wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 8 Kstarted
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BAL
Sep 21 at BAL
last game
Sep 21 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
TOR·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
77−80
season record
76−81
40−38
home record
37−42
37−42
away record
39−39
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
7.8
0.95
home runs / game
1.22
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.61
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TOR · BAL · 179 days
Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
Sep 21at BALBAL 4 − 3
Sep 13at TORTOR 8 − 1
Sep 12at TORTOR 7 − 3
Sep 11at TORBAL 7 − 4
Jun 7at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 6at TORTOR 6 − 4
Jun 5at TORBAL 13 − 3
May 31at BALBAL 9 − 5
May 30at BALBAL 6 − 5
May 29at BALTOR 6 − 5

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 21at BAL3 − 4L
Sep 20at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 19at TEX2 − 6L
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L
Sep 14vs DET5 − 6L
Sep 13vs BAL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs BAL7 − 3W
Sep 11vs BAL4 − 7L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 21vs TOR4 − 3W
Sep 20vs MIL0 − 3L
Sep 19vs MIL0 − 1L
Sep 18vs MIL5 − 6L
Sep 16at NYM7 − 1W
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W