bayesRatings

Reds at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CIN 5 – TOR 1
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN012020000560
TOR000000100151
Team box
CIN·TOR
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
6
walks
3
12
strikeouts
5
121
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hector RodriguezCIN2-4002
JJ BledayCIN1-3211
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4001
Sal StewartCIN1-5001
Andres GimenezTOR1-3001
Brett BatemanTOR2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (W)CIN6.03022
Trey Yesavage (L)TOR2.02113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · CIN 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 44%, TOR 56% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
TOR by 0.8
Expected score
TOR 4.7 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
8.6
RedsThe matchupBlue Jays
+129Our fair odds−129
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.14Power rating+0.03
4.1Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.3
1.32Home runs / game0.94
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
74−86Season record78−82
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12944%+13442.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12956%−16161.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.8
CINCincinnati Reds+0.8our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.8 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more43%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more32%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 11.91 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TOR
Sep 25 at TOR
last game
Sep 25 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
CIN·TOR
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
74−86
season record
78−82
38−43
home record
41−38
36−43
away record
37−44
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.3
1.32
home runs / game
0.94
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.56
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CIN · TOR · 182 days
Cincinnati RedsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Sep 25at TORTOR 6 − 5
Sep 3, 2025at CINTOR 13 − 9
Sep 2, 2025at CINTOR 12 − 9
Sep 1, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at TORCIN 11 − 7
Aug 20, 2024at TORTOR 10 − 3
Aug 19, 2024at TORCIN 6 − 3
Aug 20, 2023at CINTOR 10 − 3
Aug 19, 2023at CINTOR 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2023at CINCIN 1 − 0

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 25at TOR5 − 6L
Sep 24at ATL7 − 6W
Sep 23at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22at ATL4 − 0W
Sep 20vs CHC1 − 9L
Sep 19vs CHC2 − 5L
Sep 18vs CHC6 − 4W
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 25vs CIN6 − 5W
Sep 23at BAL2 − 4L
Sep 23at BAL2 − 4L
Sep 21at BAL3 − 4L
Sep 20at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 19at TEX2 − 6L
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L
Sep 14vs DET5 − 6L