bayesRatings

Reds at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CIN 5 – TOR 6
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0140000005121
TOR200000406100
Team box
CIN·TOR
12
hits
10
1
home runs
0
1
walks
5
11
strikeouts
6
154
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-3003
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4102
Hector RodriguezCIN2-4001
Nathan LukesTOR2-3001
Carlos JorgeCIN2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick LodoloCIN5.07223
Luis Mey (L)CIN1.01321
Jose SorianoTOR3.08502
Mason Fluharty (W)TOR0.20000
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · CIN 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 44%, TOR 56% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
TOR by 0.8
Expected score
TOR 4.7 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
8.6
RedsThe matchupBlue Jays
+127Our fair odds−127
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.14Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.3
1.33Home runs / game0.94
3.5Walks drawn / game2.8
74−85Season record77−82
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12744%+13442.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12756%−16161.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.8
CINCincinnati Reds+0.8our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.8 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more43%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more32%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TORJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TOR
Sep 24 at ATL
last game
Sep 23 at BAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
CIN·TOR
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
74−85
season record
77−82
38−43
home record
40−38
36−42
away record
37−44
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.3
1.33
home runs / game
0.94
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.55
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CIN · TOR · 181 days
Cincinnati RedsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Sep 3, 2025at CINTOR 13 − 9
Sep 2, 2025at CINTOR 12 − 9
Sep 1, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at TORCIN 11 − 7
Aug 20, 2024at TORTOR 10 − 3
Aug 19, 2024at TORCIN 6 − 3
Aug 20, 2023at CINTOR 10 − 3
Aug 19, 2023at CINTOR 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2023at CINCIN 1 − 0
May 22, 2022at TORCIN 3 − 2

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 24at ATL7 − 6W
Sep 23at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22at ATL4 − 0W
Sep 20vs CHC1 − 9L
Sep 19vs CHC2 − 5L
Sep 18vs CHC6 − 4W
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 23at BAL2 − 4L
Sep 23at BAL2 − 4L
Sep 21at BAL3 − 4L
Sep 20at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 19at TEX2 − 6L
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L
Sep 14vs DET5 − 6L
Sep 13vs BAL8 − 1W