bayesRatings

Guardians at White Sox

MLB · Thursday, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CLE 9 – CHW 5
← MLB / Oct 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE0000360009100
CHW002020001580
Team box
CLE·CHW
10
hits
8
2
home runs
1
7
walks
8
3
strikeouts
12
194
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE2-5213
Patrick BaileyCLE2-3212
Miguel VargasCHW1-2211
Sam AntonacciCHW1-2002
Jo AdellCLE1-4002
Brenton DoyleCHW1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker MessickCLE2.12245
Erik Sabrowski (W)CLE1.01001
Hagen SmithCHW0.20030
Anthony Kay (L)CHW0.11200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 2 · CLE 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, CHW 52% · Updated Oct 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.3 CLE
Expected total
8.8
GuardiansThe matchupWhite Sox
+107Our fair odds−107
4.3Expected runs4.5
+0.04Power rating+0.02
4.2Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.30
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
85−77 · 1−2 postSeason record84−78 · 4−1 post
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10748%−11653.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10752%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CHWHagen Smith SP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHW
Oct 7 at CHW
last game
Oct 7 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CLE·CHW
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
85−77 · 1−2 post
season record
84−78 · 4−1 post
41−40
home record
48−33
44−37
away record
36−45
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.30
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.52
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CLE · CHW · 192 days
Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 6−4
Oct 7at CHWCLE 9 − 3post
Oct 5at CLECHW 4 − 3post
Oct 3at CLECHW 3 − 0post
Sep 16at CLECLE 6 − 3
Sep 15at CLECLE 7 − 6
Sep 14at CLECHW 7 − 3
Aug 9at CHWCHW 5 − 3
Aug 8at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Aug 7at CHWCLE 8 − 2
Jul 5at CLECHW 7 − 6

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 7at CHW9 − 3W
Oct 5vs CHW3 − 4L
Oct 3vs CHW0 − 3L
Sep 27at KC2 − 3L
Sep 26at KC11 − 5W
Sep 25at KC12 − 9W
Sep 24at BOS1 − 0W
Sep 23at BOS0 − 1L
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 20vs ATH1 − 0W

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 7vs CLE3 − 9L
Oct 5at CLE4 − 3W
Oct 3at CLE3 − 0W
Sep 30at HOU7 − 3W
Sep 29at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 27vs COL4 − 2W
Sep 26vs COL6 − 9L
Sep 25vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 24at KC9 − 1W
Sep 23at KC4 − 5L