bayesRatings

White Sox at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CHW 0 – CLE 2
← MLB / Oct 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000000000031
CLE00020000260
Team box
CHW·CLE
3
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
21
strikeouts
7
107
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE1-3112
Petey HalpinCLE2-3000
Kyle TeelCHW1-4000
Tristan PetersCHW1-3000
Sam AntonacciCHW1-4000
Jo AdellCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Burke (L)CHW5.04204
Gavin Williams (W)CLE5.210212
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.20004

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Oct 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
8.0
White SoxThe matchupGuardians
+112Our fair odds−112
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.02Power rating+0.05
4.8Runs / game4.2
4.4Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game8.0
1.30Home runs / game1.00
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
84−78 · 4−2 postSeason record85−77 · 2−2 post
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11247%+11945.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11253%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·CLE
Oct 8 vs CLE
last game
Oct 8 at CHW
1 day
days of rest
1 day
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CHW·CLE
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.8
runs / game
4.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
84−78 · 4−2 post
season record
85−77 · 2−2 post
48−33
home record
41−40
36−45
away record
44−37
L2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.0
1.30
home runs / game
1.00
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.51
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

CHW · CLE · 193 days
Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Oct 8at CHWCLE 9 − 5post
Oct 7at CHWCLE 9 − 3post
Oct 5at CLECHW 4 − 3post
Oct 3at CLECHW 3 − 0post
Sep 16at CLECLE 6 − 3
Sep 15at CLECLE 7 − 6
Sep 14at CLECHW 7 − 3
Aug 9at CHWCHW 5 − 3
Aug 8at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Aug 7at CHWCLE 8 − 2

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Oct 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Oct 7vs CLE3 − 9L
Oct 5at CLE4 − 3W
Oct 3at CLE3 − 0W
Sep 30at HOU7 − 3W
Sep 29at HOU6 − 3W
Sep 27vs COL4 − 2W
Sep 26vs COL6 − 9L
Sep 25vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 24at KC9 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 8at CHW9 − 5W
Oct 7at CHW9 − 3W
Oct 5vs CHW3 − 4L
Oct 3vs CHW0 − 3L
Sep 27at KC2 − 3L
Sep 26at KC11 − 5W
Sep 25at KC12 − 9W
Sep 24at BOS1 − 0W
Sep 23at BOS0 − 1L
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W