Final · our forecast was SA 47%, NY 53% · Updated Jun 8
Expected margin
NY by 1.2
Expected score
NY 113.0 – 111.9 SA
Expected total
224.9
SpursThe matchupKnicks
+114Our fair odds−114
111.9Expected points113.0
+0.98Power rating+0.88
119.7Points / game116.5
111.7Allowed / game110.2
48.4FG%47.7
35.83P%37.2
47.0Rebounds / game45.8
62−21 · 12−8 postSeason record54−29 · 14−2 post
5−5Last 1010−0
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · NY chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
Team
Our modelfair
Kalshi
Polymarket US
ProphetX
Novig
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs
+11447%
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NYNew York Knicks
−11453%
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SpreadNY by 1.2
SASan Antonio Spurs
+1.2our margin
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NYNew York Knicks
−1.2our margin
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Totalwe expect 224.9
Over
224.9our total
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—
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Under
224.9our total
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These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
New York Knicks by 1.2 expected
40302010010203040
← SA wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more44%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more30%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%
Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.
Total range
224.9 expected
180200220240260
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.531%
Total from 215 to 23439%
Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.