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Raptors at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DEN by 0.6
Expected score
DEN 116.0 – 115.4 TOR
Expected total
231.4
RaptorsThe matchupNuggets
+127Our fair odds−127
115.4Expected points116.0
+0.38Power rating+0.42
117.5Points / game110.8
102.5Allowed / game114.0
44.2FG%45.5
30.53P%33.0
45.8Rebounds / game44.5
3−1Season record2−2
6−4Last 104−6
Kawhi Leonard F · Nate Bittle COutAlpha Diallo F · Cameron Johnson F
Julian Strawther G · Spencer Jones F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DEN chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+12744%————
DENDenver Nuggets−12756%————
SpreadDEN by 0.6
TORToronto Raptors+0.6our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.4
Over231.4our total————
Under231.4our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 0.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%
← TOR wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more42%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more28%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.4 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleylast game
GJa'Kobe Walterlast game
FRJ Barrettlast game
FScottie Barneslast game
CJakob Poeltllast game
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraylast game
GChristian Braunlast game
FAaron Gordonlast game
FTrevon Brazilelast game
CNikola Jokiclast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DEN
Oct 30 vs ORL
last game
Oct 30 at PHX
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Toronto Raptors
TORKawhi Leonard F · left knee inflammation, back about Nov 23Out
TORNate Bittle C · right foot fractureOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAlpha Diallo F · right personalOut
DENCameron Johnson F · right ankle sprainOut
DENJulian Strawther G · left knee sprain, back about Nov 29Out
DENSpencer Jones F · hamstringOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TOR·DEN
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
117.5
points / game
110.8
102.5
points allowed / game
114.0
3−1
season record
2−2
2−0
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
44.2
FG%
45.5
30.5
3P%
33.0
45.8
rebounds / game
44.5
27.2
assists / game
26.0
15.0
turnovers / game
16.0
52.0
points in paint / game
45.5

Rating Trend

TOR · DEN · 10 days
Toronto RaptorsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 8−2
Mar 20at DENDEN 121 − 115
Dec 31, 2025at TORDEN 106 − 103
Nov 4, 2024at DENDEN 121 − 119
Oct 28, 2024at TORDEN 127 − 125
Mar 11, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 119
Dec 20, 2023at TORDEN 113 − 104
Mar 14, 2023at TORTOR 125 − 110
Mar 6, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 113
Mar 12, 2022at DENTOR 127 − 115
Feb 12, 2022at TORDEN 110 − 109

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 28vs ORL129 − 99W
Oct 25at MIN94 − 117L
Oct 23at WSH112 − 102W
Oct 21vs CHI135 − 92W
May 3at CLE102 − 114L
May 1vs CLE112 − 110W
Apr 29at CLE120 − 125L
Apr 26vs CLE93 − 89W
Apr 23vs CLE126 − 104W
Apr 20at CLE105 − 115L

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at NO104 − 91W
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W