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Nuggets at Pelicans

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final DEN 104 – NO 91
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN37202225104
NO1827281891
Team box
DEN·NO
37-80
field goals
34-82
12-31
3-pointers
7-30
18-19
free throws
16-22
42
rebounds
41
30
assists
20
18
turnovers
19
42
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO322552
Jamal MurrayDEN382316
Nikola JokicDEN34211310
Aaron GordonDEN3115113
Christian BraunDEN361504
Derik QueenNO2511121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +22
DEN +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 0 · DEN 22lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 62%, NO 38% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
DEN by 4.8
Expected score
DEN 123.5 – 118.7 NO
Expected total
242.3
NuggetsThe matchupPelicans
−162Our fair odds+162
123.5Expected points118.7
+0.39Power rating−0.62
113.0Points / game124.7
121.7Allowed / game128.0
45.3FG%48.3
31.03P%31.0
45.3Rebounds / game45.3
1−2Season record0−3
4−6Last 101−9
Alpha Diallo · Cameron Johnson
Julian Strawther · Spencer JonesOutJaron Pierre Jr. · Malik Dia
Yves Missi

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · NO chance
Our model fair61.8%38.2%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket US63.6%40.7%
ProphetX62.0%40.3%
Novig61.5%39.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−16262%−16862.7%−17563.6%−16362.0%−16061.5%
NONew Orleans Pelicans+16238%+14041.7%+14640.7%+14840.3%+15339.5%
SpreadDEN by 4.8
DENDenver Nuggets−4.8our margin−4.5 −10350.7%−4.5 −10751.7%−4.5 −10050.0%−4.5 +10449.0%
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.8our margin+4.5 −11653.7%+4.5 −11252.7%+4.5 −11252.9%+4.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 242.3
Over242.3our totalo241.5 −10350.7%o241.5 −10350.7%o241.5 +10149.8%o240.5 −10250.5%
Under242.3our totalu241.5 −12154.7%u241.5 −11653.7%u241.5 −11052.4%u240.5 −10250.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← DEN wins byNO wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more53%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more38%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.3 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.530%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FTrevon Brazilestarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDeAndre Jordanstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·NO
Oct 26 vs GS
last game
Oct 24 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAlpha Diallo · personal reasonsOut
DENCameron Johnson · right ankle sprainOut
DENJulian Strawther · left knee sprainOut
DENSpencer Jones · bilateral hamstring injury managementOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NOJaron Pierre Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
NOMalik Dia · g league - two-wayOut
NOYves Missi · left knee contusion / bone bruiseOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DEN·NO
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.62
113.0
points / game
124.7
121.7
points allowed / game
128.0
1−2
season record
0−3
1−1
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
1−9
45.3
FG%
48.3
31.0
3P%
31.0
45.3
rebounds / game
45.3
24.7
assists / game
24.7
15.3
turnovers / game
16.0
46.7
points in paint / game
60.7

Rating Trend

DEN · NO · 8 days
Denver NuggetsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 2−8
Oct 24at DENDEN 141 − 135
Jan 13at NODEN 122 − 116
Nov 19, 2025at NODEN 125 − 118
Oct 29, 2025at DENDEN 122 − 88
Feb 5, 2025at DENDEN 144 − 119
Feb 3, 2025at DENDEN 125 − 113
Dec 22, 2024at NODEN 132 − 129
Nov 15, 2024at NONO 101 − 94
Jan 12, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 113
Nov 17, 2023at NONO 115 − 110

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W
Apr 12at SA128 − 118W

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Oct 24at DEN135 − 141L
Oct 23at UTAH119 − 120L
Oct 21vs IND120 − 123L
Apr 12at MIN126 − 132L
Apr 10at BOS118 − 144L
Apr 7vs UTAH156 − 137W
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L
Apr 2at POR106 − 118L
Mar 29vs HOU102 − 134L